ISLE OF DISTRUST: RUSSIA HAS 17 NEIGHBORS, AND IT’S HAD FRICTION WITH 11 OF THEM AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER
by: Alexander Kolesnichenko
Translated by A. Ignatkin
Source: Novye Izvestia, May 15, 2007, pp. 1-2
Agency WPS
What the Papers Say Part B (Russia)
May 15, 2007 Tuesday
Russia’s relations with its neighbors; The recent incident with the
Bronze Soldier in Estonia extended the list of Russia’s "malevolent
neighbors." Russia is nearly surrounded by hostile countries. Armenia
is probably the only post-Soviet republic to have retained cordial
relations with Russia.
Relations with eleven countries out of seventeen Russia has borders
with may be appraised as bad or very bad.
The discord with only three neighbors (Japan, China, Norway) are
rooted on objective historic circumstances. Russia refuses to part
with four Kuriles islands which Japan persists in viewing as its own
Northern Territories. Japanese fishermen approach the islands only
to be apprehended by the Russians as poachers. Russian border guards
even killed one fisherman last year. Conflict with Norway is analogous
(the matter concerns the Barents Sea). Russia settled border disputes
with China – to its own disadvantage, that is.
Russian population of the border territories is estimated at 10
million, Chinese in the adjacent areas at 100 million. Population of
China is growing, that of Russia dwindling. Experts say that mass
immigration from China may cost Russia its Far East similar to how
Serbia lost Albanian-populated Kosovo.
The rest of the neighbors Russia has friction with are post-Soviet
republics and Poland, former Warsaw Pact ally. Georgia was Russia’s
Number One Enemy all through 2006. Russia began with closing its market
to Georgian wines and mineral water and ended with deportation of the
Georgians and a transport blockade. Political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin
believes that Russian ideology these days is focused on the attempts
to regain the status of a great power. "However, Russia lacks what
could make it a center of attraction and geopolitical influence. It
lacks a powerful and versatile economy," Oreshkin said.
"Citizens of the former Soviet republics want to live the way they live
in Germany and not in the Smolensk region." Deployment of "negative
weapons" is the only option left Russia – restrict import from these
countries and up energy tariffs.
Even that, however, doesn’t help. Georgia reported a 9.5% growth of
the GDP last year, almost 50% higher than Russian GDP growth.
Russia’s other neighbor in the south, Azerbaijan, is irked
that Russia backed Armenia in the Azeri-Armenian conflict over
Nagorno-Karabakh. Baku had its vengeance when it had the pipeline
to Ceyhan in Turkey built bypassing Russia and when it began selling
Georgia oil when Russia upped oil price for Tbilisi.
Konstantin Zatulin, Director of the Institute of CIS Countries and
Duma deputy, claims that trying to find friends among neighbors is
wrong. "These countries have barely regained sovereignty. Looking
for a prey among them is more logical than looking for friends,"
Zatulin said.
Relations with Ukraine and Belarus rapidly deteriorated over the last
several years. With the former it happened after a conflict over the
Black Sea Fleet and the Kremlin’s meddling in the confrontation between
candidates for president Victor Yuschenko and Victor Yanukovich. In
fact, a shooting conflict was barely averted when Russia tried to
link a Ukrainian island with the Russian coast.
Corollaries of all this friction were predictable. Russia upped gas
price for Ukraine. Ukraine made membership in NATO a priority of its
foreign policy.
Where Belarus is concerned, Moscow and Minsk have been nominally
building a union since 1994. Attempts to carry out actual integration
of the national economies were futile. Every country has its own
monetary unit and tax legislation. When Moscow upped the gas price
for Belarus last winter, enraged Minsk boosted transit tariffs
and disrupted Russian oil export to Europe across the territory
of Belarus. Russia confronts the necessity to build a pipeline
bypassing its neighbor, the country extolled as its most loyal ally
only recently.
Russia’s relations with the Baltic states have never been particularly
cordial, first and foremost because Russia called itself assignee
of the late Soviet Union, a country the Baltic states regard as an
occupier. Politicians in these countries proposed that a recompense
for the occupation be demanded form Russia time and again.
There was a period when Latvia aspired to claim the Pytalovo district
of the Pskov region, the territory it had owned between 1920 and
1940. Latvia and Russia signed the border treaty in 2005 and closed
the matter for good. Latvian canned fish is not permitted into the
Russian market because of a high content of benzopyrene.
Armenia is probably the only post-Soviet republic to have retained
cordial relations with Russia. This country needs Russian energy
resources and even has a Russian military base on its territory.
Relations with Central Asian countries are more or less fine as well.
According to Oreshkin, it is typical of the Russian policy that
"there is nothing to boast of in the relations with Europe while
relations with the regimes like the Turkmenbashi’s are quite warm."
Kazakhstan is probably the only exception but even this country with
its rapidly developing economy needs Russia as a transit country in
its oil and gas export.
Where Western neighbors are concerned, Russia is definitely behind
them in everything that matters. GDP per capita in the Baltic states
is higher than in Russia, their economies develop at a faster rate.
Hence the willingness on the part of some Russian state officials
to choose the so-called Belarusian path, Oreshkin said. "What they
mean by that is kicking up rows with all neighbors, isolate Russia
from everyone, and extoll stability that resembles Soviet stagnation
as the best accomplishment." Availability of information and the
growth of the population’s demands coupled with inefficiency of the
authorities may result in mass disturbances, Oreshkin warned.
Russia remains a country foreigners keep coming to. Andrei Kokoshin
of the Duma Committee for CIS Affairs announced yesterday that "Russia
should concentrate on attracting labor immigrants from the countries it
enjoys cordial relations with." This policy is putting another weapon
into Russia’s hands – immigration. And provides Russia’s neighbors with
another excuse for feeling offended. Zatulin claims that it doesn’t
matter. "Anti-Americanism throughout the world is a much stronger
and more justified phenomenon than some criticism of Russia," he said.