TURKEY’S EU DREAM JEOPARDIZED BY ISLAMISTS
By Andrew Borowiec, THE WASHINGTON TIMES

The Washington Times
May 27, 2007 Sunday

[Photo by Agence France-Presse/Getty Images]

Presidential candidate triggers crisis

A series of events triggered by a presidential candidate accused
of pursuing an Islamic agenda has plunged Turkey into a crisis and
damaged its prospects of joining the European Union.

The crisis has openly pitted Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
against the secular lobby backed by the military elite, including
the chief of general staff, Gen. Yasar Buyukanit.

Once again, there are rumblings of a possible military coup if the
army judges that the country is moving too far toward political Islam,
thus endangering Turkey’s republican system.

That, say Turkish analysts, would be "the end of Turkey’s European
dream."

Hovering in the background is Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul, whose
presidential ambitions triggered the crisis. Mr. Gul, his adversaries
say, is an Islamist whose wife and daughter wear Muslim headscarves
that are banned in public buildings.

Because of an opposition boycott in parliament, the Erdogan government
and its Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has roots in a
disbanded Islamic party, failed to muster the majority needed to
elect Mr. Gul.

In a climate of accusations, acrimony and mass demonstrations in
favor of the secular system, the government called early parliamentary
elections to be held July 22 and submitted a bill for a presidential
vote by the electorate rather than parliament. On Friday, Ahmed Sedat
Sezer, the strongly secular outgoing president, vetoed the bill,
saying it was incompatible with Turkey’s democratic system and could
lead to instability.

The electoral-reform proposal was driven by the governing party’s
popularity, due mainly to spectacular economic gains: Turkey’s economy
now generates three times as much income as the average West European
country. Opinion polls suggest that the July elections are likely to
increase the AKP’s strength, and thus Mr. Erdogan’s power.

Turkey’s future and its role are regarded by the U.S. as crucial to
the West’s defense posture in an area astride East and West, with Iraq
on fire next door. So far, its political system has demonstrated that
democracy and moderate Islam are not incompatible.

U.S., EU lose clout

According to James F. Hoge Jr., editor of Foreign Affairs quarterly,
"At this critical juncture, the United States and Europe find their
leverage on Turkey markedly diminished. Anger at America and Europe
is rampant because of the U.S. occupation of Iraq and Europe’s vocal
reluctance to grant Turkey EU membership."

The July parliamentary elections are unlikely to resolve the turmoil
over Turkey’s identity and the qualification of the predominantly
Muslim nation of 74 million to join the European club.

While intellectuals insist on the nation’s European credentials,
a strong political current carries the view that, snubbed by Europe,
Turkey should move closer to the Arab Middle East.

Further complicating the EU candidacy of the country once described as
"the sick man of Europe" is the growing opposition to its membership
among Europeans, underscored by the recent election of Nicolas Sarkozy
as president of France. Two years ago, France defeated in a referendum
a planned European constitution, in part over fears it would pave
the way to Turkey’s membership.

During his electoral campaign, Mr. Sarkozy openly challenged
Turkey’s claim to be European and instead proposed the creation of a
"Mediterranean union" in which Turkey would have a leading role.

Turkey insisted that this idea could not be construed as replacing
its claim to EU membership.

In its opposition to Turkey, France has been joined by Germany and
Austria. A country can be admitted to the EU only by a unanimous vote
of its members, now numbering 27. To one Turkish analyst, Mr. Sarkozy’s
election "was the final nail in the coffin of Turkish-EU relations."

Western diplomats do not see the situation in such dramatic terms,
although according to one assessment: "Turkey’s bout with political
instability has damaged its foreign policy and international standing."

Contributing to Turkey’s isolation is its continuing denial of the
massacre of Armenians 90 years ago and its rejection of calling the
deaths "genocide." Nearly every time a country mentions the massacre,
Turkey threatens sanctions.

EU to resume talks

With political Islam increasingly inching forward, the EU nonetheless
insists that its problems with Turkey are temporary and that
negotiations on "chapters" forming the accession package will resume.

Talks about eight such chapters have been suspended because of Turkey’s
refusal to open its airports and harbors to Greek Cypriot traffic,
despite a protocol signed in Ankara. Refusing to recognize the Greek
Cypriot government, Turkey backs the separate entity it created for
the Turkish Cypriot minority on the island, defended by Turkish forces.

On the Greek side of the Cypriot barricades, satisfaction with
Turkey’s difficulties is increasingly marred by concern that with
Turkey outside Europe rather than in it, chances of a compromise on
the divided island will evaporate.

Commented Nicosia’s English-language Cyprus Mail daily: "In 2004,
Turkey was willing to give something because it still believed it
could join the EU. In 2007, Turkey no longer believes in Europe,
and the chances of reunification look bleak."

Nonetheless, many Europeans have not slammed the door on Turkey. In
a dramatic appeal last week, 34 intellectuals, politicians and
parliamentarians from various EU countries called on governments to
reaffirm the membership promises made to Turkey.

"Turkey still has much to do before it meets European standards, but
by showing solidarity with Turkish democrats, the EU can now help to
keep the process on track," the appeal said.

Such is the atmosphere in which the Turkish armed forces,
the self-appointed guardian of the republic installed in 1923 by
Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, abandoned the constraints introduced by the
EU application and issued a formal warning to politicians this month.

"Some circles, which having carried out endless efforts to disturb
fundamental values of the republic in Turkey, have recently escalated
their efforts," said the statement by the Turkish military.

"The Turkish armed forces are concerned about the situation. It
should not be forgotten that the armed forces are a party in these
arguments and absolute defender of secularism. .. The Turkish armed
forces maintain their determination to carry out their duty stemming
from laws to protect the republic"

3 coups since 1960

This was a clear signal from the military establishment which, since
1960, has carried out three coups and, in 1997, forced out of office
an Islamist prime minister, Necmettin Erbakan, in what is described as
"a soft coup."

Mr. Erdogan, the prime minister, could do little about the military’s
warning besides express indignation and insist it was "unthinkable"
that the armed forces could challenge an elected government.

Since Ataturk founded the republic on the ruins of the Ottoman
empire, the army has been the country’s pride and its most respected
institution. Even today, said historian David Hotham, "the army takes
peasants from remote villages, feeds them, clothes them, teaches them
to read and write."

Politically, the army has become a sacrosanct guardian of the
republican system, or, as Mehmet Ali Birand, a respected Turkish
commentator, described it: "a kind of nongovernmental organization,
an interest group with heavy weapons."

At the same time, however, the army’s entrenched position has become
an obstacle in Turkey’s European integration. The government thought
it had limited its role by appointing a civilian to head the National
Security Council, but the military’s latest warning shows that its
political role continues.

"The power and status of the army is a striking feature of life in
Turkey," said Gils Merrit, director of the think tank Forum Europe.

"Its relationship with the government and parliament is unthinkable
in European terms."

Ataturk was wary of religion, which he considered to be hampering
progress. That is why, in efforts to push Turkey westward, he included
in his reforms a ban on such external symbols as the red fez for men
and the veil for women.

Recent Islamist-inspired measures such as segregated swimming pools in
Istanbul and plans to restore gender segregation on city buses have
given ammunition to the secular opposition. Demonstrations in favor
of secular values swept all major cities when the governing party
named Mr. Gul as its presidential candidate, forcing his withdrawal.

Although two main opposition parties – the Republican People’s Party
(CHP) and the Democratic Left Party (DSP) have formed an alliance for
the approaching parliamentary vote, Mr. Erdogan appears confident:
His government, which many consider inclined toward Islam, has enacted
more than 800 strongly secular laws to bring Turkey closer to Europe.

Thus, to many Europeans, Turkey remains a conundrum as well as a
divisive factor within the EU.

GRAPHIC: French President Nicolas Sarkozy opposes Turkey’s entry
into the European Union. He has proposed a "Mediterranean union"
in which Turkey would have a leading role.[Photo by Agence
France-Presse/Getty Images]; Turkey’s Foreign Minister Abdullah
Gul is predicted to pursue an Islamic agenda if he takes power as
president. The country’s military is opposed to his promotion.[Photo
by Agence France-Presse/Getty Images]; People in the Asian side of
Istanbul protested Turkey’s ties with Western nations May 1, a banned
rally during which nearly 600 people were arrested. The banner reads
"Neither USA nor EU, Fully independent Turkey." Turkey’s dream to
join the EU is in jeopardy.