PRO-WESTERN OR PRO-RUSSIAN?
By Karine Mangassarian

Yerkir.am
May 25, 2007

Political analyst Alexander Iskandarian believes both options are
for internal use.

Political analyst Alexander Iskandarian says our society has a wrong
perception of pro-Russian or pro-Western orientations. We tried to
find out whether there have really been a shift from pro-Russian
to pro-Western orientation in our society as a result of which more
pro-Western opposition forces were elected to the parliament.

Before commenting on the question Iskandarian noted that it is very
important to define the word "opposition" correctly. None of the
political forces in the parliament except for the Republican Party
that has a majority can be clearly defined as pro-government or
opposition forces. Each of the other four parties in the parliament
can theoretically join the coalition government or become opposition.

"It is not correct to call this or that political force ‘opposition’
today.

The political system is constructed in such a way that the political
forces come to replace each other, at least this is the case in
countries with a normal political system. There can be no permanent
opposition because any political force is striving to get to power
and does not want to be in the opposition. At the same time, any
party should be ready to become opposition," Iskandarian said.

Iskandarian quoted the German experience where a coalition government
was formed from political forces that could not sit together at one
table. However, this did not prevent them from forming a coalition
and the forces that were more tolerant towards each other became
opposition.

What do people mean when they say pro-Russian or pro-Western
orientation?

Iskandarian believes people mean that this or that party is defending
the interests of the West or Russia. In other words, if the West says
‘this is good’ then it is good. If the West is fighting a war in Iraq –
then it is the correct thing to do.

If the West decides to pressure Turkey – then it is the correct thing
to do.

And what if the West decides tomorrow to give Nagorno Karabagh to
Uzbekistan? Will this be the correct thing as well? The same can be
said about pro-Russian orientation.

"I can say that these are all signals aimed at attracting the
electorate. In order to gain the support of the older people,
especially those living in the rural areas, they say that Russia is
good, everything was perfect in the Soviet times. Meanwhile, people
in Armenia do not know today’s Russia and the Russian TV channels
they watch do not give the true image of Russia.

On the other hand, in order to gain the support of the younger
generation and the electorate in the urban areas they say the same
good things about the West despite the fact that even in the Western
countries elections are sometimes rigged, the judicial system is
interfering into the political, and there are clans like for instance
the Bush brothers. We do not notice this. They explode cars in France
after the elections. We do not notice this. I think this is to some
extent normal because the political consciousness in transitional
countries is infantile," Iskandarian says adding that pro-Russian
and pro-Western orientations are the same thing.

Commenting on politics, Iskandarian says that Serzh Sargsian is
different when he is in Washington, Moscow, Paris or Yerevan. He has
different priorities, his wording is different. Even when Armenia is
involved in some European projects and Russia makes a more advantageous
proposal we agree to what Russia is offering. Iskandarian believes
any political leader should agree to that.

"Of course there will be discussions and negotiations. We cannot say
that we can live without gas because we are pro-Western. Or that we
can live without trade because we are pro-Russian. People in Europe
understand very well that the parliamentarians and the state officials
are different. Putin cannot say the same things as Zhirinovski.

The latter’s goal is not to govern Russia but to gain the voters’
support.

You can be pro-Western if you are representing the Rule of Law Country
Party or the Heritage party. If you are representing the Republican
Party you cannot be pro-Russian or pro-Western.

You should be pro-Russian or pro-Western depending where you are
and with whom you cooperate. You should try to survive in a real
political system. If the same Heritage Party becomes the governing
force it will change its behavior because it will have to negotiate
about gas supply and other issues," Iskandarian says.

He believes these are elementary things. From our political debates
one can see that there is a misperception of the situation. He
reminded of the anti-Russian policies of the Pan-Armenian Movement
in the first post-independent years when Armenia was getting money
form the West, importing food through the Turkish border and buying
weapons from Russia. And this was done by people with pro-Western
orientation. Our political leaders are pro-Armenian and they make their
decisions based on the country’s interests, Iskandarian concluded on
an optimistic note.