FUTURE OF KARABAKH TO BE DECIDED IN ST.PETERSBURG
by Sohbet Mamedov, Yuri Simonjan
Source: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, May 30, 2007, p. 9
Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
June 1, 2007 Friday
Aliyev and Kocharjan will meet in the northern capital
NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN ALIYEV AND ROBERT KOCHARJAN IN ST.PETERSBURG WILL
SHOW PROGRESS OR LACK THEREOF IN THE MATTER OF KARABAKH CONFLICT
SETTLEMENT; Presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia will meet in
St.Petersburg to discuss Nagorno-Karabakh.
Yuri Merzlyakov and Bernard Fassiet, chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group
supervising the Azerbaijani-Armenian talks, are fairly optimistic on
the subject of the meeting between the Presidents of Armenia Robert
Kocharjan and Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev scheduled to take place in
St.Petersburg on June 9. Kocharjan and Aliyev are expected to meet
within the framework of the informal CIS summit.
The intermediaries’ optimism stems from the recent trips to Yerevan and
Baku where they met with the leaders of the states and representatives
of their political establishments. Merzlyakov and Fassiet told
journalists afterwards that they had every reason to expect their
mission to succeed.
As far as Alpai Ahmed, the political scientist from Baku, is concerned,
the frequency of visits to the region from international organizations
proves that the dialogue is constructive indeed and that there exists
some particular action plan whose contours will become clear after
the presidents’ meeting in St.Petersburg. Ahmed is convinced that
Azerbaijan and Armenia are about to come to an agreement concerning
the basic principles of conflict settlement. It is already known at
the very least that the matter concerns the gradual Armenian pullout
from seven districts of Azerbaijan.
"Chairmen admit, however, that the Lachi Corridor connecting
Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia poses a problem," Ahmed said. "Aliyev
and Kocharjan will certainly discuss the matter at the meeting as
one of the most important on the agenda."
Yerevan is less exultant. Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanjan
is convinced that the St.Petersburg talks will only show progress or
the lack thereof in the conflict settlement. "Preparations for the
meeting are under way. Should the tendency remain unchanged, Armenia
will agree that there is nothing to prevent a meeting between the
presidents," Oskanjan said. Sources in Yerevan admit, however, that
Armenia is prepared to make some "concessions". It is an oblique way
of saying that Armenia may withdraw from seven districts of Azerbaijan
bordering on Nagorno-Karabakh. Jirair Sefiljan, a Karabakh war hero and
an adamant enemy of all and any withdrawals, was recently arrested in
Armenia. It may be taken as an indirect confirmation of the existence
of this plan.
Analyst Boris Navasardjan (Yerevan) claims that a compromise
solution to the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh must exist. It even
apparently includes a provision on so important an issue as the lot
of the Azerbaijani territories beyond Nagorno-Karabakh held by the
Armenians. "In the meantime, Karabakh talks within the framework
of the OSCE Minsk Group are quite detached from the Real Politik
charted and promoted by Baku and Yerevan," Navasardjan said. "Hence
the optimistic statements from OSCE Minsk Group chairmen. They have
to show the world at least something, don’t they? The same goes for
the agreement on the next meeting between Aliyev and Kocharjan. They
play into the intermediaries’ hands, helping them latter create an
illusion of progress."