Thomas de Waal: If war breaks out over Karabakh, both sides will lose

armradio.am
04.06.2007 12:38

`I strongly believe that the Karabakh conflict can only be resolved if
there is an extremely creative approach to the problem of security and
sovereignty of Karabakh itself which lies at the centre of it,’
well-known British journalist, the leader of Caucasus program of
Institute of interpretation of problems of war and peace (IWRP), the
author of the book `Black Garden’ Thomas de Waal declared in response
to the questions of Analitika.az.

`The Karabakh Armenians will not accept simple `return’ to Azerbaijan `
remember that the last time they had friendly contact with Azerbaijan
was almost twenty years ago. And Azerbaijan will not accept the
separation of Karabakh or it joining Armenia. So some kind of special
status must be the solution,’ Thomas de Waal noted. He expressed
concern that that the dispute will drag out for a long time, because
there is very little original discussion about in on either side and
the majority of people are still focused on the idea of victory rather
than peace.

`Unfortunately the Karabakh dispute is still in a phase of `verbal war’
where both sides are trying to secure a complete victory over one
another. But that will never happen. A peaceful settlement means both
sides lose ` and in the end everyone wins,’ Thomas de Waal stated.

Turning to the issue of resumption of military action, Mr. Thomas de
Waal said he is against war. `I know that if war broke out over
Karabakh, both sides would lose ` Karabakh itself would be destroyed,
thousands of young Azerbaijani men would die in the minefields of
Aghdam and Fizuli and thousands of Armenians would die in the bombing
of the towns and villages of Karabakh. And reconciliation would be set
back by another couple of generations. That is why to my mind, peace is
the only option.

At the same time the British journalist said he does not see much
evidence that the ruling elite of either country cares passionately
about a quick resolution of the conflict. `It is not they are who are
suffering from the non-resolution of the conflict ` and in some ways it
directly benefits them. They certainly understand the long-term benefit
of a resolution of the conflict ` but they fear the short-term pain
that trying to reach a compromise would give them. Why make life
difficult for themselves? I believe that most international outside
powers (and I include Russia, whose position on Karabakh is much more
constructive than its position on Abkhazia and South Ossetia) want to
be rid of the headache of Karabakh and see the conflict resolved.
However, they are not so worried about it that ` in contrast to places
like Lebanon or Afghanistan ` they are prepared to send tens of
thousands of peacekeeping troops there.