PREVIEW-MODEST HOPES FOR KARABAKH PEACE TALKS
By Jane Barrett

Reuters Alert, UK
June 6 2007

YEREVAN, June 6 (Reuters) – European mediators hope Azerbaijan and
Armenia will agree small steps to improve life for people of the
disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh at peace talks in Russia on
Saturday, even if they make little progress on the main issue of the
breakaway region’s status.

Karabakh, a predominantly Armenian region of Azerbaijan, broke away
in the late 1980s as the Soviet Union disintegrated, triggering a
war between separatists and the Azeri state from 1992-1994. More than
35,000 people were killed.

Since the war, the enclave and lands around it have been controlled by
a separatist army, backed by Armenian volunteers. Karabakh’s minority
Azeri and Kurdish population largely fled during the fighting.

Azeri President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian President Robert Kocharyan,
himself a former Karabakh leader, will meet in St Petersburg on
Saturday on the sidelines of a CIS summit amid signs both leaders
will stand by their positions.

One underlying fear is that if dialogue fails, violence could restart,
destablising an area emerging as a major energy producer and a key
oil and gas transport route between the Caspian Sea and Europe.

Mediators from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in
Europe (OSCE) said the parties could kickstart talks on a deal, which
would put aside the key issue of who rules the region and focus on
step-by-step rapprochement. "This is a golden opportunity," Miguel
Angel Moratinos, the Spanish foreign minister and current chairman
of the OSCE, which is guiding the negotiations, told reporters during
a visit to the Caucasus region.

The 140,000 population of Karabakh, backed by Armenia, overwhelmingly
voted in December in a referendum to reiterate their commitment to
full independence; but the mountainous region has not been recognised
by any nation.

Armenia is involved in talks on this most intractible dispute in the
former Soviet Union, but it denies being a party to the conflict.

Ahead of the meeting between Aliyev and Kocharyan at the summit of
ex-Soviet states, Armenia’s foreign minister said ensuring Karabakh’s
right to self-determination was paramount.

"If we can do that, I believe we will find solutions to other issues,"
Vardan Oskanyan said.

Azerbaijan wants Karabakh back but says it would give the region a
high level of autonomy.

"The current state of the negotiation process and also the known
statements by the Azerbaijani side in the past two months have left
very little hope for a positive result," Kocharyan’s press office
told Armenian Mediamax news agency.

STEP-BY-STEP SOLUTION

OSCE negotiators say that despite the lack of agreement on the
principal issue there is still a possibility of step-by-step moves
to ease the crisis.

Diplomats said Moratinos likened the proposal to talks between Spain,
Britain and Gibraltar, where the parties agreed to maintain different
opinions on the Rock’s sovereignty but work together on practical
steps to improve life around the area.

The fate of seven Azeri regions outside Karabakh seized by Armenian
nationalists and the return of 600,000 refugees who fled them during
the war could become a topic for discussions.

The OSCE hopes the two countries can agree to work on a "two-step
solution" under which separatists will withdraw troops from the
Azeri regions to facilitate the return of refugees. Azerbaijan would
guarantee the safety of a ground corridor between Karabakh and Armenia.

Both moves could be monitored by international peacekeepers.

Baku has already used part of its booming oil wealth to triple its
military budget in two years to around $1 billion, pretty much equal
to Armenia’s entire government budget.

Karabakh separatists have demanded a direct role in talks, something
Azerbaijan is unlikely to agree to.

Moratinos said once could hardly expect prompt solutions.

"We shouldn’t have false hopes. This is a complex situation and we
have to respect both sides," he said.