ARMENIA, AZERBAIJAN EDGE TOWARDS DEAL ON WAR-RAVAGED TERRITORY
by Michael Mainville
Agence France Presse — English
June 7, 2007 Thursday 3:36 AM GMT
A meeting this Saturday of the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan is
raising hopes that a deal could be reached on a dispute over the
volatile territory of Nagorny Karabakh that has long disfigured
this region.
The two countries have been locked in a bitter stand-off over the
mountain territory for more than a decade, poisoning efforts to bring
stability to the strategic South Caucasus region, bordered by Russia,
Turkey and Iran.
Having gone to war in the early 1990s, their forces still clash
sporadically and any escalation could derail Western efforts to promote
a corridor of oil and gas pipelines from the Caspian Sea to Europe.
Russia and Turkey have a close interest. Ankara has closed its borders
with Armenia in support of Azerbaijan, while Moscow counts Armenia
as its closest ally among the ex-Soviet states on this southern flank.
Now however diplomats are saying that a meeting this weekend in the
Russian city of Saint Petersburg between Armenian President Robert
Kocharian and his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev could herald
a breakthrough.
No one is expecting a final settlement, but diplomats say an agreement
on basic principles could be reached by the end of this year.
"If they decide they want to resolve the last few issues on the
table then it’s realistic that you could anticipate the signing of
an agreement on the basic principles this year," US Deputy Assistant
Secretary of State Matthew Bryza, who is mediating in the talks,
said in the Azerbaijani capital Baku.
"The two presidents are very close to eliminating the final differences
between them. They could be close to zero after this weekend," he said.
The top French mediator, Bernard Fassier, said that "never in the
past have the two sides been this close to a possible agreement,"
but cautioned that "this does not mean a deal is at hand. It means
that it is perhaps less far away than it was before."
French, Russian and US diplomats are mediating under the auspices of
the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).
Diplomats said the two sides could set aside the issue of the final
status of Nagorny Karabakh in favour of a step-by-step plan to deal
with other contentious matters.
An Azerbaijani source close to the negotiations said there is the
possibility of a deal Saturday on the withdrawal of Armenian forces
from seven Azerbaijani regions seized outside Nagorny Karabakh.
This would be followed by the deployment of international peacekeepers
and eventually the return of about 700,000 Azerbaijanis who fled the
seven regions, the source said.
For the Armenian side, Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian voiced caution,
saying most previous meetings of the two presidents had "succeeded
in moving the process forward a bit."
"We remain hopeful that Azerbaijan will demonstrate the political will
to stick to the difficult negotiations process, rather than rely on
increased oil wealth to resolve an issue that cannot have a military
solution," he said.
Azerbaijan has more than doubled its military budget in recent years
thanks to a massive boost in oil revenues.
Armenian forces seized Nagorny Karabakh and some surrounding territory
from Azerbaijan during a war in the early 1990s that claimed an
estimated 35,000 lives and forced about a million people on both
sides to flee.
A ceasefire was signed in 1994 but more than a decade of efforts to
broker a settlement have failed.
In a referendum last December, Nagorny Karabakh’s 140,000 people
voted overwhelmingly in favour of full independence. However the
region has not been recognised by any country, including Armenia.
Even if progress is made, observers say a final status agreement will
take years.
At a converted factory in Baku housing refugees from Nagorny Karabakh,
residents doubted they would be able to return home soon.
Many said it would take force to win back the region.
"I don’t believe the Armenians will ever give up (Nagorny Karabakh),"
said Sahiba Hasanova, a 51-year-old refugee running a small bakery
in the factory.
"We don’t want war, but if there is no way to solve this peacefully,
how else will we get back our land?"
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
