EurasiaNet, NY
June 8 2007
AZERBAIJAN READY TO DISCUSS RUSSIAN-US USE OF RADAR STATION
Rovshan Ismayilov 6/08/07
Azerbaijan has stated that it is ready to hold bilateral and
trilateral talks with Russia and the United States over the joint use
of an Azerbaijani radar station as an anti-missile defense shield.
The agreement comes, however, amidst strong statements by Baku that
its own national interests must be taken into account by both Moscow
and Washington.
"It is not possible to undertake any actions without us," stressed
Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov at a June 8 press briefing in
Baku, adding that joint use of the station could bring "greater
stability and predictability in the region." "Both Russia and the US
accept our position, and we are ready for negotiations."
During a June 7 summit meeting of the world’s most industrialized
powers, Russian President Vladimir Putin told US President George W.
Bush that Moscow would drop its objections to a missile shield —
originally proposed for installation in North Atlantic Treaty
Organization members Poland and the Czech Republic — if the
radar-based system were instead installed in Azerbaijan. If the US
agreed to the proposal, Moscow would not retarget Russian missiles on
Europe, the Russian leader said.
"This will create grounds for common work," news agencies reported
Putin as saying after a meeting with Bush on the sidelines of the G8
summit in in the Baltic Sea resort town of Heiligendamm. Bush has
stated that the two sides have agreed to "a strategic dialogue."
Talks with President Putin are expected to continue July 1-2 at the
Bush family summer home in Kennebunkport, Maine.
As proposed, the system would be installed at the Soviet-era Gabala
radar station, located some 250 kilometers northwest of Baku. The
station, built in 1985, is designed to monitor the launch of
inter-continental ballistic missiles in the southern hemisphere. Now
leased by Moscow, the station makes up an important part of the
Russian anti-missile defense system. The Russian lease on Gabala runs
until 2012. [For details, see the Eurasia Insight archive].
While Putin’s proposal to install a US missile shield at Gabala came
as a surprise to many, it appears that the issue has been under
discussion with Azerbaijan for some time. At the G8 summit, Putin
mentioned that he had already discussed the issue with Azerbaijani
President Ilham Aliyev. In Baku, Foreign Minister Mammadyarov said
the proposal had also been discussed during a May 21-22 visit to
Azerbaijan by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Azerbaijani
Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov had earlier visited Moscow that
month for security talks with the Russian leadership.
Talks with the American side about the proposal, however, have only
been at a "rudimentary level", according to Mammadyarov. (A Russian
diplomat in Baku told the Novosti-Azerbaijan news agency that the
idea had been raised during US Defense Secretary Robert Gates’ visit
to Moscow in late April.) Azerbaijan’s discussions with the US are
expected to continue during bilateral security consultations
scheduled for July 9-10 in Washington.
So far, the response in Baku to the Russian president’s initiative
has been largely positive. Aydin Mirzazade, deputy chairman of the
parliamentary defense and security committee, believes that joint use
of the Gabala radar station will contribute to "greater stability in
the world."
"It will also strengthen the geopolitical position of Azerbaijan,
since the station belongs to our country. Azerbaijan will take part
in the negotiations and will be able to defend its national
interests," Mirzazade said. "I think this idea is a potential
political dividend for Azerbaijan."
Even if the proposal does not work out as planned, it stresses
Azerbaijan’s strategic importance, agreed Rasim Musabekov, an
independent pro-opposition political analyst. "In any case,
Azerbaijan has nothing to lose here. The joint use of Gabala radar
station by the Americans and Russians would mean diversification of
this base and would increase the strategic weight of Azerbaijan."
One Baku-based military expert, however, terms the proposal a "bluff"
by the Russian leader. "Gabala radar station is still an important
component of Russia’s anti-missile shield and I do not think they
have a serious intention to share it with the US," said the expert,
who asked not to be named. "Putin’s statement is just a test to check
whether the US is ready to give up their plans to create an
anti-missile system in Poland and Czech Republic."
Making sure that Azerbaijan does not become a chip in a strategic
power game between the US and Russia is a concern for other
observers, as well. Analyst Musabekov cautioned that Baku should pay
close attention to how use of the Gabala station would affect its own
national security.
"If the two superpowers would guarantee Azerbaijan’s security, it
would be worth to have talks on the issue. Azerbaijan will have the
right to demand taking its interests into account. It may touch the
issue of the Karabakh conflict [with Armenia] and also security
guarantees in regard to third countries," he said.
One of those third countries would most likely be Iran, Azerbaijan’s
neighbor to the south. In the past, Azerbaijani officials have
stressed that they would not allow their country to be used for any
form of military action against Iran, which contains a sizeable
ethnic Azeri population. They had also strongly denied earlier
speculation that the US’s planned missile shield would be installed
in Azerbaijan, which cooperates militarily with both NATO and the US.
[For details, see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Addressing the issue on June 8, however, Foreign Minister Mammadyarov
downplayed the potential for acrimony with Tehran.
"It is the wrong approach," he told reporters. "Azerbaijan’s foreign
policy is based on its national interests. And these negotiations
[with Russia and the US] will also be based on our interests."
Both Yeni Azerbaijan MP Mirzazade and analyst Musabekov also do not
consider Iran’s reaction a serious threat to Azerbaijan. "It is
possible that Iran will not be happy with the idea. However, we
should know that it [Gabala station] is a defensive system,"
Musabekov said.
Editor’s Note: Rovshan Ismayilov is a freelance journalist based in
Baku.