PanARMENIAN.Net
Kocharyan- Aliyev meeting in Saint Petersburg will be
the regular but never the last one
All the announcements about the `breakthrough’, `window of
opportunity’ and `progress’ carry simply diplomatic significance.
08.06.2007 GMT+04:00
The closer the date of the meeting of the Presidents of Armenia and
Azerbaijan is, the `more active’ the atmosphere around the resolution
of the Karabakh Conflict becomes. The Presidents are supposed to meet
on June 9 within the frames of CIS non-formal Summit. Over the last
week the outcomes of the meeting have been discussed a lot. Statements
about `the happy ending being close’ made by the OSCE Co-Chairs are
most probably meant for the public, rather than for the participants
of the negotiation process.
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ If the statements offering Armenia to give back
territories including Lacin and Kelbadjar in exchange to the
inconceivable promise to recognize the status of Nagorno-Karabakh,
made by Azerbaijan and by the mediators somehow coincide with each
other, then no agreement in Saint Petersburg will ever be reached. No
Armenian President will ever agree with such conditions, in spite of
the strong pressure both from the Co-Chairs and all the interested
parties. However it should be mentioned that Azerbaijan has more key
factors displaying pressure on it, than Armenia. The pressure
displayed on Armenia may be expressed by the fear of blockade, war and
seizure of the humanitarian aid. Baku must not forget that there is
the issue of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, which stretches
through very unstable regions of Turkey. And the matter is not in the
pipeline only. All the energy projects of Azerbaijan may be simply
stopped, because Baku has no money to spend on their realization. In
the country which as Aliyev assures `is simply swimming in oil’,
inflation level is 20% and it has tendencies to grow even more. And in
this matter Turkey can’t do anything either, for it has debts which
are more than $200 billion, though it should be mentioned that both
Baku, and Ankara are ready to spend any money to isolate Armenia.
Yet all these are just trifles. The resolution plan itself is much
more important, and its details are being revealed to the public by
the mediators, thus predetermining the outcomes. According to the
suggested plan, a kind of peace contract is to be signed, which would
ban any force implementation and would apply international sanctions
against any violation, the second stage presupposes that the defense
forces of Nagorno-Karabakh should leave the safe havens, i.e. 7
regions around Nagorno-Karabakh. Only the question of the status of
Lacin and Kelbadjar regions, directly connecting Karabakh with
Armenia, is discussed. It is supposed that after the demilitarization
of the buffer zone peace forces will be situated there, refugees will
be returned. After this in about 15-20 years a national referendum
will be held in former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Republic where the
future status of the Republic will be discussed. It is quite obvious
that neither Armenia nor Karabakh will ever agree with such
conditions. The mediators themselves, in spite of their optimism, are
perfectly aware that this plan is unrealistic. Yet, the trial balloon
has already been launched; the Co-Chairs have supposedly talked over
returning the territories and are obviously waiting for the reaction
from Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, which didn’t make them wait
long. Unlike Azerbaijan, here the public opinion in crucial issues
concerning the nation is always taken into account.
Another inhibitory factor in the resolution of this conflict is the
absence of the Nagorno-Karabakh representative in the negotiation
process. This question has been mentioned more that once, yet neither
the OSCE Minsk Group, nor the conflicting parties are going to have
Nagorno-Karabakh join the process. `The present format of the
negotiations will not bring the conflict to its resolution. The matter
which is of paramount importance now for the population of Karabakh is
deciding its status. Only after that it will be possible to talk about
the continuation of the negotiations’, announced the President of
Nagorno-Karabakh Arkadi Ghukasyan after the meeting with Miguel Angel
Moratinos, so all the announcements about the `breakthrough’, `window
of opportunity’ and `progress’ carry simply diplomatic significance.
«PanARMENIAN.Net» analytical department