ARMENIAN PM FORMS NEW CABINET AFTER ELECTION TRIUMPH
By Emil Danielyan

Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
(168 Zham, June 7, 9; Haykakan Zhamanak, June 7-8; Aravot, June 7)
June 12 2007

Armenia’s President Robert Kocharian and his top political allies have
cut a new power-sharing deal resulting from their landslide victory
in the May 12 parliamentary elections. In a decree made public on
June 8, Kocharian formally approved the composition of a coalition
government headed by his longtime close associate Serge Sarkisian and
dominated by representatives of the latter’s Republican Party (HHK),
the main election winner.

The development came after almost a month of difficult negotiations
between the HHK and two other major pro-Kocharian parties,
Prosperous Armenia and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation, also
known as Dashnaktsutiun. Sarkisian agreed to share power with them,
even though his party won an outright majority in parliament and was
able to single-handedly form a government. He is clearly trying to
mobilize broad-based political support for his intention to succeed
Kocharian in a presidential election due in early 2008.

Officially, the new ruling coalition is made up of the HHK and
Prosperous Armenia, which came in a distant second in the parliamentary
elections. Their leaders signed a corresponding memorandum in
Kocharian’s office on June 6. They then signed a separate "cooperation
agreement" with Dashnaktsutiun, enabling the center-left nationalist
party to distance itself from Sarkisian’s government while retaining
three of the four ministerial posts it has held for the past four
years. The Armenian ministries of agriculture, education, and social
affairs will thus continue to be run by Dashnaktsutiun members. The
party, which is particularly influential in the worldwide Armenian
Diaspora, also clinched the right to appoint one of the country’s
ten provincial governors, a deputy speaker of the National Assembly,
and the chairpersons of two parliament committees. One of its top
leaders, Vahan Hovannisian, was elected as vice-speaker during the
first session of the newly elected legislature on June 7.

Meanwhile, Prosperous Armenia, which is led by Kocharian-connected
tycoon Gagik Tsarukian, got hold of the less significant ministries
of health, urban development, and sport affairs, despite the fact
that it won considerably more parliament seats than Dashnaktsutiun.

The HHK will directly or indirectly control seven ministries,
including those of finance and justice, as well as the newly created
post of deputy prime minister. Kocharian, for his part, filled two
other cabinet vacancies, reappointing his longtime Foreign Minister
Vartan Oskanian and Defense Minister Mikael Harutiunian. Neither man
is affiliated with any party. In addition, the Armenian president will
continue to control the law-enforcement and tax-collection agencies
that are not part of the government and are directly subordinated to
the head of state.

The coalition talks took longer than expected because of disagreements
revolving around the extent and form of Dashnaktsutiun’s continued
presence in Armenia’s leadership.

Dashnaktsutiun leaders made it clear in the run-up to the May 12 vote
that they will quit the government unless their party is given control
over the Ministry of Defense. But they dropped that demand after the
HHK’s election triumph, mindful of the fact that Sarkisian and his
loyalists can now push any decision through parliament practically
at will. Nonetheless, Dashnaktsutiun set other conditions, including
a greater say in the formulation of government policies and a right
to disavow those policies with which it disagrees. Surprisingly,
Sarkisian appears to have agreed to all of those conditions.

Speaking to journalists later on June 6, another party leader, Armen
Rustamian, stressed that Dashnaktsutiun will have an "independent
political tactic" and will bear no responsibility for the actions of
the prime minister and cabinet members not affiliated with it. More
importantly, he also confirmed that the nationalist party has not
committed itself to endorsing Sarkisian’s presidential bid. The issue
was the main stumbling block during the post-election negotiations,
with Sarkisian reportedly insisting that the coalition partners pledge
to nominate a single candidate for the presidential ballot.

Dashnaktsutiun leaders, whose rapport with Kocharian’s most likely
successor has always been quite frosty, have repeatedly stated
that they plan to have their own presidential candidate. Rustamian
effectively reaffirmed this at the news conference.

All of which raises the question why Sarkisian agreed to give
ministerial portfolios to Dashnaktsutiun without getting anything
significant in return. Some local commentators believe that he did
so under pressure from Kocharian, who has enjoyed the party’s strong
backing throughout his nine-year presidency. They speculate that
Kocharian is keen to limit the HHK’s rising grip on power as part of
his apparent plans to continue to pull the government strings in some
capacity after completing his second and final term in office.

Prosperous Armenia’s worse-than-expected election performance (it
won only 24 of the 131 parliament seats) is thought to have already
dealt a serious blow to the realization of those plans.

Analysts also suggest that Sarkisian still hopes to win over
Dashnaktsutiun or at least keep it from challenging him in the
2008 election. Indeed, while Dashnaktsutiun does not seem to
have potentially electable presidential hopefuls, its independent
involvement in the presidential race would make life much harder
for Sarkisian. In particular, the party’s government levers coupled
with its well-organized grassroots network put it in a position to
restrict and/or expose the increasingly sophisticated vote rigging
that remains the HHK’s and Sarkisian’s principal election-winning
technique. Whether Dashnaktsutiun is really ready to pick a fight
with Armenia’s number one "party of power" remains to be seen. Cynics
say the Dashnaktsutiun leadership has grown too accustomed to power
and the resulting perks to become an opposition force. The next few
months will show if they are right.