ARMENIA ON THE EDGE OF DEMOGRAPHIC DISASTER
Shushan Matevosyan

Hayots Ashkharh Daily – Armenia
13 June 07

The specialists often argue and raise an alarm regarding the fact that
the abrupt changes in Armenia’s demographic situation have turned into
a serious threat faced by the state and the national security. But
nothing more is done on this occasion besides raising the alarm.

We have what we have

The main flow of the emigration from Armenia has been registered from
1991-1994. According to the professional evaluation of the Ministry
of Labor and Social Security, if from 1991-2004 more than 900 thousand
people left Armenia, from 1991-1994, in the so called "cold and dark"
years, 600 thousand people emigrated from Armenia. And the worst
thing is that most of them were individuals of reproductive age.

This is the reason why today Armenia is facing the problem of
population aging and deterioration of gender-age proportion. The number
of the pensioners has been reduced from 2001-2003, but it is mainly
due to the fact that these are the people, who were born during the
years of the Great Patriotic War, that has been smaller in number.

If during the coming years immigration flows are not registered in
Armenia, the specific gravity of the pensioners won’t increase in
Armenia. But this will last only for some period of time. The situation
will take an abrupt change after 4-5 years, as those born in 1950-ies
and later those born in 1960-ies will come closer to the pension
age. Specialists say should we not register abrupt growth of birth
rate during these years the fact of population aging will deteriorate.

MALES 41% FEMALES 59%

In terms of demography the ratio of males and females is also not
favorable in Armenia at present. The specialists say gender-age problem
faced by the population is mainly conditioned by the activeness of
the males in emigration processes. That is why the drop of the males’
specific gravity is much more obvious.

The gender disproportion of the population is more emphasized in the
elder age groups. Among the population aged 60 and more the specific
gravity of the males is 41% and that of the females is 59%.

We should mention that according to international demographic norms if
the population aged 65 and more exceeds 12% this nation is considered
as already aged. In this context our society is decrepit.

By the way, specialists state that had the emigration not occurred,
in 2001 there would be 1031 male for 1000 female aged 30-34. Naturally
it is indispensable, if not correct then at least to avert the flow
of emigration during the coming years.

BIRTH RATE REDUCED

It is not a secret that for more then a decade birth rate has reduced
in our country. But the reason is not only emigration, because those
who are still living in this country are not very enthusiastic about
having many children. The tradition of having at least 2-3 children
no longer exists in our reality. The number of the children has
reduced to 1-2. If in the first case birth rate has reduced by 34%
and 47%. In case of three and more birth cases birth rate has reduced
three and even more than three times.

As regards this the problems still awaits us. Very soon we are going
to face the problem of scarcity of young people of military age;
a real problem for the national army.

But this is not the only problem. The main problem is that the
specialists, for a long period of time, have been recording the
process of a decay of national values and collapse of traditional
Armenian families, whereas not only birth rate is disappointing in
our reality, but also the high rate of divorces. And the conditions
bringing to the formation of this reality are far not optimistic.

According to the specialists in 2000 10986 marriage cases have been
registered in Armenia, and in 2005 this number has increased to 16624.

As for divorce cases, it is reducing in parallel with the reduction
of marriage cases. In 2000 it was 1,3 thousand and in 2005 it has
increased into 2,5 thousand. In 2005 from 1000 newly formed families
148 divorces have been registered, instead of 105 in 1980, and 154
in 1990.

To be continued.