Eurasia Daily Monitor
June 14, 2007 — Volume 4, Issue 116
SOLUTION IN MOLDOVA — `KEY TO RUSSIA-WEST DISPUTE’ AT CFE TREATY
CONFERENCE
by Vladimir Socor
As anticipated (see EDM, May 25), the unlawful presence of Russian
troops in Moldova became the decisive issue at the emergency conference of
state parties to the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE), underway
in Vienna June 11-15. That issue is not only the main remaining obstacle to
the Treaty’s ratification by Western allies. The allies now call for
withdrawal of Russian troops from Moldova (and also from the Gudauta base in
Georgia) as the first in a sequence of moves to bring the 1999 CFE Treaty
into force and accommodate Russia on other treaty-related issues. It is a
measure of the allies’ interest in Moldova that they insist on a
satisfactory solution there, in return for giving perhaps favorable
consideration to some Russian demands elsewhere.
Addressing the conference on June 13, Moldova’s delegation called for
a `complete, orderly, and transparent withdrawal of Russian troops and
armaments, in accordance with Russia’s 1999 Istanbul Commitments’ (a part of
the CFE Treaty package). `Only [such a] withdrawal can create prerequisites
for the start of national ratification procedures on the adapted CFE
treaty,’ the Moldovan statement insisted. Deploring the non-transparent
military situation in Russian-controlled Transnistria, the statement calls
for turning the existing `peacekeeping’ operation into an international
mission of observers under an OSCE mandate (Moldovan Ministry of Foreign
Affairs press release, June 13).
The statement is in line with Moldova’s position since 2005, which has
all along been more forward-leaning compared to Western positions on this
issue. Despite its recent attempts to accommodate Moscow on the political
resolution of the conflict, Chisinau has remained firm on the issue of troop
withdrawal and a transformed peacekeeping operation. Only the point
regarding an OSCE mandate signifies a retreat from the earlier position.
Aware of the organization’s weaknesses, Chisinau had until now called for an
`international mandate,’ in hopes of convincing the European Union to assume
this responsibility on the EU’s border.
The U.S. delegation leader, Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried,
told the media on the sidelines of the closed-door conference that its
outcome `will depend on some kind of solution first, especially for
Moldova.’ Similarly, a NATO official noted on background, `Moldova is key
to this whole dispute between Russia and NATO. If we can resolve the Moldova
issue, the rest could fall into place.’ The Russian base at Gudauta in
Georgia would be dealt with in the same context (International Herald
Tribune, June 14).
Speaking separately from each other, Fried and the NATO official
outlined a possible sequence of steps that would bring the unratified CFE
Treaty into force and keep Russia on board the treaty. In the first two
steps, Russia would withdraw its troops from Transnistria and Gudauta and
would then join — as a minority participant — an international
peacekeeping operation in Transnistria. In the next two steps, Western
allies would expeditiously ratify and bring into force the 1999 CFE Treaty,
whereupon the three Baltic states could legally join the treaty (a major
Russian interest, so as to negotiate constraints on hypothetical allied
deployments in the Baltic states). In the final step or steps, with Russia
abiding by the treaty in force, NATO could favorably consider Russian
demands to raise the treaty-mandated limits on Russian force deployments in
the `flank’ regions — that is, the North Caucasus and a part of Russia’s
northwest. (During this conference, Russia is complaining especially about
the limits on the forces it may station in the North Caucasus under the CFE
treaty.
Withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria and Gudauta — as well
as a `creative solution’ to peacekeeping in Transnistria — are
prerequisites to this whole process, Fried and other Western officials
stated outside the closed-door conference. That `creative solution’ is a
proposed international operation with minority Russian participation. `We
shall keep faith both with our own principles and with countries like
Georgia and Moldova,’ Fried made clear (U.S. State Department transcript of
Fried briefing, June 12).
On June 13 at the conference, NATO allies circulated confidential
proposals along those lines and that sequence: from Russian troop
withdrawals to ratification of the treaty by allies to negotiations for
upward revision of limits on Russian flank deployments. This conference may
at most produce agreement on the broad principles on these issues, leaving
the details for follow-up negotiations in other forums. However, Russia
insists on discussing other issues as well, including U.S. bases in Romania
and Bulgaria, hoping for trade-offs (see EDM, May 25, June 8, 11, 13).
–Vladimir Socor
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
