WE HAVE NOTHING TO GIVE
Haroutyun Gevorkyan

Hayots Ashkharh Daily – Armenia
14 June 07

Time Plays into Armenians’ Hands

RICHARD KIRAKOSYAN, former expert of the US Congress, strategic analyst
of the British "James" analytical centre and political advisor of
"Liberty" Radio station, had a meting with journalists in "Pastark"
club yesterday.

Known for his unreserved reputation within American and European
political circles, the analyst first of all introduced his assessment
with regard to the last Kocharyan-Aliev meeting held in St. Petersburg.

"There seems to be nothing new at first sight. However, if we view
what has happened in pursuance of the logic of the developments
inside the region, i.e. Iran and Iraq, and in that context – the
sharpening relations between the United States and Russia, there are
really certain complications for Armenia and Azerbaijan in military
terms. Now, the matter is not addressed to the window being close
or open."

R. Kirakosyan disagrees with Co-Chair M. Bryza’s statement that the
Unites States participation in the negotiation process contributes to
finding a diplomatic solution. During the last Karabakh settlement
talks the United States had a major impact in Key West. Now the
preserving the status quo of Arstakh is mutually beneficial for both
for the Russian Federation and the United States.

The speaker pointed out the pro-Armenian shifts observed in the
attitudes of the mediators and the international forces, unequivocally
conditioning them with the successful course Parliamentary elections
held in our country on May 12.

"In the near future elections are to be held in Georgia, Azerbaijan
and in February elections having greater significance are expected in
Armenia again, in addition to the elections to be held in the Russian
Federation and the United States. At this stage, the first strict
orienting step was made by Armenia which immediately appeared in a
completely different, more favorable situation. We should believe
that the Artsakh settlement process will slow down at that stage;
however, there are already good news for us."

And what is the good news? First of all, it should be noted that
the RF President Vladimir Putin first left for Kazakhstan and
Turkmenistan, and only thereafter did he take part in the Group Eight
summit. Russia’s new agreement with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan on
energy issues creates an extremely favorable situation for Armenia
as well, since the Baku-Jeyhan oil export program immediately became
unimportant and secondary.

Secondly, the national interest of Armenia and Russia proved
to coincide at this stage. The Gabala program proposed by Putin
underscores in turn that Azerbaijan has to solve a strictly important
strategic problem.

R. Kirakosyan believes that Armenia will not have, under any
circumstances, to become a NATO member in order to keep its military
potentials on a proper level. Armenia may have something to do with
and not under the control of NATO.

"The statements the US President recently made in Albania come to
confirm that Arsakh’s struggle was quite proper. After recognizing
Kosovo’s independence, it will be very difficult for the United States
and the European Union to avoid recognizing Artsakh’s independence.

Therefore, we must realize from no on that neither Turkey nor
Azerbaijan can be a thereat to the national security of Armenia
and Artsakh."

With regard to Armenia’s internal problems, "it is corruption and
state administration that pose threat," in the estimation of the
politician. "The real prerequisites for overcoming such threats are
visible as a result of the elections. They may be expressed by names
– Arthur Aghabekyan, David Haroutyunyan and Nerses Yeritsyan. These
people are the bearers of the values of reforms and democracy in
their spheres, i.e.

army, justice and economy. Azerbaijan is now trying to achieve
this by virtue of having only oil versus our country’s democracy
and stability."

R. Kirakosyan disagrees with those, "who insist the Artsakh
issue be discussed during the talks. I don’t think there is any
other alternative at this point. Artsakh belongs to us, and the
divergences in views around the status are exhausted. It is always
possible to remind the hesitant of what happened in Baku, Sumgayit
and Kirovabad. As far back as last year I was thinking that it was,
nonetheless, possible to return certain regions, and now I am convinced
that we have nothing to give either in military or demographic terms.

>From this point of view, time plays into our hands, since handing
over any territory is becoming impossible day by day."