Azerbaijan’s lack of democracy threatens regional alliance – opposition
paper

Yeni Musavat, Baku
21 Jun 07 p 8

Baku’s authoritarian regime makes it a weak link in the GUAM regional
alliance of Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova, according to an
article in Azerbaijani opposition newspaper Yeni Musavat. Russia, which
considers much of the alliance’s activity to run counter to its own
interests, may use Azerbaijan to weaken or destroy the alliance
altogether, the article said. The following is the text of Zahid
Safaroglu’s report in Yeni Musavat newspaper, "A blemish visible from
the summit. Some points about the Baku summit and the anti-summit":

The GUAM summit in Baku has finished. A great deal seems to have been
expected of the meeting. This was natural, as most analysts see GUAM,
whose real name is the Organization for Democracy and Economic
Development, as the most effective body for the West to curb Russia’s
ambitions in Eastern Europe and the post-Soviet area. That is, the
organization and strengthening of the bloc are really being considered
in the context of the geopolitical rivalry between two power centres.

It is no coincidence that the leaders of influential Eastern European
countries such as Poland, Lithuania and Romania, and also high-ranking
officials from Japan, Turkey and the European Union joined the heads of
state and government of the bloc’s member countries at the Baku summit.
The USA, which at one time gave its blessing to the creation of the
organization, was represented at the level of deputy secretary of
state, confirming once more its closeness to the union.

It is also no coincidence that the topics on the summit’s agenda –
energy and the economy, security, the creation of peace-keeping forces
and the proposal to return frozen conflicts to UN discussion – were
arranged in direct contradiction to Russia’s geopolitical, geo-economic
and geo-military interests. Moscow knew this. The anti-summit of
separatist regimes held in Tiraspol and conducted by the Kremlin on the
eve of the summit could be considered a graphic example of this concern.

However, Russia was successful as the democratic factor, which should
guarantee the organization’s solidity, is not seen to be so strong.
There is an authoritarian and corrupt regime in Azerbaijan, unlike
Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. That limits the opportunities for proper
resistance to Moscow’s policy of geopolitical claims and supporting
separatism. It is clear that Russia can find a common language much
better with corrupt regimes. In other words, the Kremlin is retaining
its chances to make use of the fact that Azerbaijan is singing out of
tune in the quartet and is a weak link to weaken the organization or to
destroy it completely.

By the way, at the summit Mr Aliyev described the separatist structures
as criminal and a "black hole" in the European area. Very good. But
isn’t Azerbaijan, itself a criminal state in which to date the Aliyev
regime has yet to hold fair elections, a black mark on the body of
GUAM? How can GUAM, which shares universal, common values, be imagined
as economic development without democracy?

For this reason the West is anxious, because it cannot rely on the
Azerbaijani authorities, on Ilham Aliyev, who stands next to Putin in
the "black 10" and equips the army with Russian tanks. The USA and West
are aware that at any time Moscow could use that to cause a problem for
the bloc. The Putin-Aliyev deal on the Qabala radar station leaves no
room to doubt the seriousness of this assumption. Moreover, there is
quite bitter experience – the experience of Uzbekistan. Of course, if
Uzbekistan had had a civilized government, Russia would not have been
able to distance it from the bloc and turn GUUAM into GUAM.

Now, if Azerbaijan is plucked away, the organization could lose one
more letter and become GUM. Without oil and gas-rich Azerbaijan, there
is no talk about the bloc’s development and energy security. Achieving
democratic reforms in Azerbaijan is one of the West’s main headaches at
present. The comment on this by Britain’s ambassador to Azerbaijan,
Laurie Bristow, during a press conference is especially valuable. The
ambassador said, "Fair elections could make Azerbaijan stronger both
domestically and abroad." Doubtless, the ambassador was also giving a
sign that the opportunities for Russian interference in our country
would diminish. So it is almost impossible to achieve that without the
West’s pressure.

The Baku summit showed that until Azerbaijan starts democratic reforms
it will not be possible to turn GUAM into an organization capable of
resisting Russia and into a true economic, political and military bloc.
Strengthening the bloc would mean speeding up our country’s integration
into Western structures, including NATO, and if at the same time
Armenia is kept out of the process, this would at last create chances
for a fair resolution to the Karabakh conflict.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress