PUTIN’S VISIT AND THE ENERGY STRATEGY TOWARDS TURKEY
by Metin Gezen
Journal of Turkish Weekly, Turkey
June 25 2007
This commentary is from USAK’s Energy Review Newsletter
It is no secret that Russia is not happy with Turkey’s involvement
of energy projects like BTC and intention to increase relations with
the Russia’s backyard. Therefore Putin’s visit to Turkey is very
important for understanding the latest stances and forecasting the
next moves of the actors of the "New Great Game".
Putin will visit Turkey during the first days of this week and
according to the Russian Ambassador in Ankara the visit is only about
energy; no other topics at all. USAK President Dr. Sedat Laciner says
"What the Russian ambassador is said to have highlighted is exactly
correct: This issue is much more important than Turkish businessmen’s
assets and liabilities. One can sharply see this as an undeniable
fact looking at figures of bilateral trade between Turkey and Russia,"
in an interview to Emine Kart from an English daily.
So what is on the agenda? This is probably what we will see this week.
Russia is like a Kremlin (means castle in Russian) or citadel from
outside. You should better be a Kremlinologist to understand what is
inside the minds of Russian policy makers, if you are an outsider.
>From inside, the whole decision making process can be limited several
people or fractions like Petersburgs, Silovikis, Liberals or Yeltsin’s
men.
Putin’s rise to power is an important milestone in Russia. Putin’s rise
to power is the work of Russian inner state and Russian intelligence
(KGB) claims Dr. Seyfettin Erol, head of USAK Eurasian Studies, and
adds : "He achieved a centralized strong government, the rights given
after 1991 has been retracted one by one. [..] There is an increasing
sympathy towards Russia in Turkey including the military but there are
people concerned with this closing up. Turkey and Russia relations
are entering a new period. 2008 is Turkish Culture Year in Russia
and Russia is following a step by step, cautious and feet on ground
policies. But the trust problem is still apparent."
But, how about the visit? Again Sedat Laciner’s interviews withelds
some clues. "Moscow wants to do the same [the deal between Germany
and Russia for a gas pipeline by-passing Poland through the Baltic
Sea] in the south with and via Turkey," He also claims : "What Russia
really wants is to transport the Kazakh and Caspian oil and gas through
Turkey either via tankers or by marine pipelines. Moscow eventually
wants a Russia-Turkey terminal,"
Goals?
Russia doesn’t limit itself or divides the world into "enemies or foes"
openly. Rather a stealth tactic is embraced. Like Gas OPEC maybe?
The visit to Turkey breeds long and short term goals. One of the short
term goals can be about attracting Turkey, which is at odds with the
EU and US, to its side. Long term goals are a bit complicated. This may
range from Georgia’s relations with Turkey to Central Asian politics.
The other very important point is the chronology of Putin’s meetings.
>>From sources (Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan) to transit (Turkey),
Russia looks like carrying out a step by step policy. This policy
through Russian style bilateral agreements may end up with a less
energy secure Europe.
The EU’s foreign policy toward Central Asia is like Santa Claus,
that means we see something and we are not sure if it is real or not.
Worse than that is, whether anything the EU policy makers have told
to Central Asian counterparts have scared them. Just months after
the EU’s "successful" talks, Russia signed long term agreements with
Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
Turkey on the other hand is losing its energy via domestic politics.
>>From elections to military’s position, the local agenda is quite
complicated. The relations with Iraq, PKK, Cyprus and Armenian problems
are also on the list. And Turkey is step by step getting isolated.
In this framework, a Russian offer for allowing Turkey to re-export
part of Russian gas and forming energy cooperation with Russia will
be a good offer for Turkey. But this will eventually break the ties
of Turkey with first Azerbaijan and Georgia and later with others.
This is because if Turkey cooperates with Russia, there will be no
need to Turkey from a Central Asian perspective. A Russian ally Turkey
is not alternative, so her marginal value is not much.
There is another issue, whether this visit is about Gas OPEC or not?
That is something to be suspicious of. Russia is, step by step,
meticulously trying to make agreements with those countries which will
strengthen her hand. A Russian Nabucco is possible for both Russians
and Bulgaria. And with a Russia surrounding her gas pipeline arms
towards north and south of Europe, as Dr. Laciner claims, Europe is
in trouble.
As a result, his visit is a small step in the short run but a big
step towards a Greater Russia in the long run.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress