KARABAGH PRECEDENT

De Facto
12 July 07

Presidential elections will be held in the Nagorno-Karabagh Republic
July 19. The population of this unrecognized state will choose
its leader via a nation-wide vote for the forth time. According to
the political scientists’ forecasting, the forthcoming elections
will be accompanied by keen struggle. 5 nominees will enter into a
pre-election skirmish.

According to the data of NKR Central Electoral Commission, Bako
Sahakian, the Director of National Security Service, Masis Mailian,
Deputy Foreign Minister, Armen Abgarian, a deputy of the National
Assembly, Hrant Melkoumian, Karabagh communists’ leader, and Vania
Avanesian, professor, a lecturer of Artsakh State University, will
be brought into action. The observers believe Bako Sahakian and Masis
Mailian will enter the main struggle. A 47-year-old Bako Sahakian is
supported by all political forces represented at the Parliament: "The
Democratic Party of Artsakh", "Free Motherland", ARF Dashnaktsutyun
of Artsakh and Movement-88 (the last two parties represent local
opposition). A joint statement has been signed with regard to their
cooperation. In other words, the NSS Director is a common nominee
of the main political forces in the Nagorno-Karabagh. Besides,
according to "Azat Artsakh" newspaper, his candidature is supported
by the Republic’s current President Arkady Ghoukassian; Armenian
authorities also treat him loyally. It should be noted that President
Robert Kocharian and Prime Minister Serge Sargsian have known him
since Soviet times. They cooperated during Karabagh war as well.

As for a 41-year-old Masis Mailian, the newspaper says he also
represents official structures; however, his candidature is
supported only by a part of opposition and opposition mass media,
as well as a number of NGOs connected with Western non-governmental
structures. Thinking that the nominees have different weight classes,
most of Armenian experts are of the opinion that the chief of Karabagh
security is the most likely contender for the presidency. Access to
administrative resource or friendship with local and Yerevan political
"heavy-weights" is not the point. To all appearances, the population
will be on the side of Sahakian, who embodies continuity of quite
efficient home and foreign policy of the Republic’s current leadership,
and will not support oppositionist Mailian, who is ambitious, according
to the newspaper, though not quite intelligible.

Besides, the fact that the latter relies on pro-Western non
governmental organizations will hardly be comprehended by Karabagh
people, since most of them have pro-Russian sentiments. According to
the results of a sociological poll held by "Open Society" organization
and Unity youth cultural-sport society not long ago, answering a
question "which course should be adopted by a President: pro-European,
pro-Russian or pro-American, and should he pursue complementary,
neutral or other policy?" 109 respondents of 300 chose pro-Russian
orientation, 61 were for European integration, 60 spoke up for
complementary policy, while 29 preferred neutral way of development.

However, local experts believe the democratic precedent the forthcoming
elections may create for the unrecognized states on the territory of
the former USSR will be their "spirit".

As it is known, NKR current President Arkady Ghoukassian, who was
elected in 1997 and 2002, does not run for president. According to a
law, which was in force until recently, one did not have the right
to be a President after serving two terms in succession. However,
last December NKR Constitution was adopted in the Republic for the
first time, and from the viewpoint of jurisdiction, Ghoukassian had
a possibility to run for a third term.

However, the Karabagh leader did not do it, creating the very
precedent, which may become a distinctive example of "moderation" for
the leaders of other states on the post Soviet territory. Ghoukassian
explained his position the following way: "we should create traditions,
the most important of which is a civilized passing of power…

The country’s image and authority is the point for me". Well,
a fifty-year-old Arkady Ghoukassian’s free-will resignation will
really improve the image of Nagorno-Karabagh and will testify to
official Stepanakert’s desire to develop democratic traditions in
internal political life of the Republic.