The Courier Mail (Australia)
July 14, 2007 Saturday
First with the news Edition

Fighting a war already lost

by Dennis Atkins

THE International Crisis Group slipped a document into the public
debate about Iraq late last month that went almost unnoticed. It
shouldn’t have, because it is the most graphic — and damning —
demonstration of current coalition policy in that doomed country.

Tagged Where Is Iraq Heading? Lessons From Basra, ICG analysts Robert
Maley and Peter Harling led a team that examined British strategy in
the southern city of Basra.

In late 2006, the British instigated their own ”surge” in Basra —
called Operation Sinbad — by flooding the area with troops to
conduct what they call ”clear, hold and civil reconstruction”. Like
the Baghdad surge now under way, this operation in Iraq’s
second-biggest city showed promise initially but proved
unsustainable.

Violence was reduced, militias were routed and military power was
devolved to what looked like a sustainable Iraqi force — ”a
relative calm prevailed”.

But this progress was, in the assessment of the ICG, ”superficial
and fleeting” and by April this year the now ”relentless” violence
had returned and the British were driven off the streets and back
into their isolated compounds.

”Today the city is controlled by militias, seemingly more powerful
and unconstrained than before,” says the ICG report. Central to this
was the failure ”to establish a legitimate and functioning
provincial advantage capable of distributing resources, imposing
respect for the rule of law and ensuring a peaceful transition at the
local level”.

The report gives lie to the suggestion that defeat in Iraq hands
power to the Al-Qaeda terrorists.

The violence has ”little to do with sectarianism and anti-occupation
resistance” but rather, involves ”the systematic misuse of official
institutions, tribal vendettas, neighbourhood vigilantism and
enforcement of social mores, together with the rise of criminal
mafias that increasingly intermingle with political actors”.

The ICG concludes that what has happened in Basra is likely to be
replicated throughout Iraq.

”Iraq is in the midst of a civil war. But before and beyond that,
Iraq has become a failed state — a country whose institutions and,
with them, any semblance of national cohesion, have been
obliterated,” concludes the ICG.

”That is what has made the violence — all the violence: sectarian,
anti-coalition, political, criminal and otherwise — both possible
and, for many, necessary.

”Resolving the contribution between Sunni Arabs, Shi’ites and Kurds
is one priority. But rebuilding a functioning and legitimate state is
another — no less urgent, no less important and no less daunting.”

There are many disturbing points of detail in the body of the report
— the subjugation of women by emboldened Islamists; ethnic cleansing
of particular groups like Armenians and Chaldeans; and how local
elected politicians have enlisted criminal gangs as foot soldiers.

The continuing persecution of Iraqi Christians is also documented.
All churches are closed and ”it is difficult, not to say impossible,
for Christians to practise their religious rituals”.

So, this is what the surge looks like. Because of the fundamental
absence of any functioning civil order, it is going to have only
limited, short-term impact, after which the gangs and militias will
come out of hiding.

The report US President George W. Bush released late this week
confirmed much of what the ICG had to say, despite the ”we can and
will win” rhetorical spin from the White House.

There is little if any progress on resolving the political problems
in Iraq — especially agreeing on oil-sharing arrangements, local
elections and establishing basic structures.

The only political progress was the distribution of $US10 billion to
the ministries and provinces for reconstruction. The security
progress is mixed, even though the Bush report looks at these issues
with distinctly rose-coloured glasses. Bush’s emphatic declaration of
progress in Iraq should be treated with extreme caution. The New York
Times columnist Nicholas Kristof put the statements in context by
listing Bush’s previous quotes:

”We’re making really good progress.” — October 2003.

Iraq is ”making steady progress”. — September 2004.

”We’re making good progress in Iraq.” — April 2005.

”Iraq has made incredible political progress.” — October 2005.

”Iraqis are making inspiring progress.” — November 2005.

Kristof wonders if Iraq, and the US, can stand another 10 years of
inspiring progress. Seven in 10 Americans want US troops pulled out
of Iraq by next April. And, coincidentally, the same number of Iraqis
— 69 per cent, according to a BBC poll — believe the presence of US
troops is making security in the country worse.

The truth is the worst-case scenario is already happening. There is
lawlessness, mass murder, political, religious and racial persecution
on a dreadful scale and all of it hidden behind the cloak of the
US-led occupation.

Failure by Iraqis to do anything is happening just because the US is
there. Sure, chaos and a hellish descent will spiral if coalition
troops leave — but it’s already happening.

Playing street-corner cops in a civil war is not going to work — if
the cops left the warring parties would have to take responsibility
for their actions.

And fear that Iran, Syria, Turkey and even Saudi Arabia could be
sucked into post-occupation Iraq violence is no certainty. Rather the
region could be forced to play a role in sorting out the Iraqi
internal dysfunction.

The ICG report pours cold water on the idea that Iran would
necessarily assume a leading role in the governing of southern Iraq.
Instead, it’s a picture of deep suspicion about Tehran’s intentions
but the distrust among Iraqi Shi’ites is such that Iran’s involvement
cannot be taken as a given.

And the suggestion that a withdrawal would damage American prestige
is a bit late. Talk to analysts in any Islamic country — from Turkey
to Indonesia — and you hear how the US presence in Iraq is the
driving force for recruiting by Islamist radicals.

The truth is the war in Iraq has been lost — indeed the country has
been lost. The US, along with its British and Australian allies,
should get out of the way and then help the region rescue this failed
state.