Moscow News (Russia)
July 13, 2007

NAGORNO-KARABAKH GEARING UP FOR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

By Armen Khanbabyan The Moscow News

Stepanakert warns Yerevan and Moscow against interfering in the
republic’s internal affairs

On July 19, the Nagorno Karabakh Republic (NKR) will elect anew
president. There are five candidates: Vanya Avanesyan, ArmenAbgaryan,
Masis Mailyan, Grant Melkumyan, and Bako Saakyan. All ofthem, except
NKP Communist Party leader Grant Melkumyan, werenominated by public
organizations. Turnout is expected at 70percent to 80 percent.

It should be recalled that last fall, Arkady Gukasyan, theincumbent
head of the unrecognized state who has been in office forthe last 10
years, said that he did not intend to run for a thirdterm.

Although until recently there was no law prohibiting him fromseeking
reelection, Gukasyan stressed that violation even ofunwritten
democratic principles would damage the republic’s image,as well as
the process of its international legitimization, since"what is
allowed recognized states will never be allowed anunrecognized one."

The candidates’ programs differ very little from one another.They
speak about social justice, the rule of law, human rights, andof
course the need to redouble efforts to ensure the NKR’srecognition.
The candidates stress that the conflict must beresolved solely by
peaceful, diplomatic methods, and in thiscontext, harshly criticize
the bellicose statements by theAzerbaijani leadership. The
Azerbaijani president said last weekArmenia must voluntarily cede
Azerbaijani territory if it wants toavoid a new war over
Nagorno-Karabakh. "Azerbaijan is militarilythe strongest power in the
region, and our neighbors should face upto this. Armenia should
voluntarily withdraw its troops fromAzerbaijani lands. Only on this
condition will it be possible tosay with certainty that there will
not be a new war," Ilkham Aliyevsaid. "None of us want losses, but
Azerbaijan is gaining strengthand is ready to conduct any operation
at any moment. We will neveraccept the situation now prevailing." –
Ed.

All candidates unequivocally reject even a mere hint thatKarabakh
could remain under Baku’s jurisdiction. Futurenegotiations (in which
the NKR must participate as a full fledgedparty) may not go beyond
the issue of returning to Azerbaijan someswaths of territory in "the
security belt" in exchange for therecognition of the republic’s
independent status. So there is nocause to believe that a change on
Karabakh’s political Olympuscould change Stepanakert’s approach
toward conflict resolution.

PRESIDENT NAMES SUCCESSOR

President Gukasyan is convinced that "a tradition ofconducting fair
elections has evolved in Karabakh" and that atpresent there are
"ideal conditions" for a free expression of thepeople’s will. He
identified his successor – Bako Saakyan, directorof the National
Security Administration, who "will stay the courseof democratization
and national development in accordance withEuropean standards: he is
a person who will be able to unite thepeople of Karabakh."

The favorite in the presidential race said that he "made uphis mind
to run after extensive consideration." "I made a consciouschoice in
the hope of serving my country even more," Saakyan said.His election
program focuses on domestic political andsocio-economic problems with
foreign policy matters coming second.Thus, for example, the candidate
has vowed to strengthen peace andsecurity, advance democracy, give
his people lives in decency andcomfort, and crack down on corruption.
It includes new housingprograms, higher wages, pensions, and welfare
benefits. Today, theaverage wage in Karabakh is around $ 200 a month.
According toSaakyan, should he be elected, wages will be doubled
within fiveyears. Pensions will also grow.

But the province’s main problem is demographic. Experts areworried
that should the current trends remain, the NKR’spopulation, which is
already rather small, could shrink even more,which could eventually
jeopardize the republic’s military-politicalsecurity. In this
connection, Saakyan’s program provides for asubstantial increase in
birth and child-care allowances. Coupleswill receive $ 3,000 for the
birth of a third child and $ 4,000 for afourth.

Observers both in Yerevan and Stepanakert are convinced thatthere
will be no surprises in the election, and the anointedsuccessor will
win hands down in the first round. Saakyan’s mainpolitical rival in
the race is, admittedly, Masis Mailyan, but hehas slim chances of
winning the election, since Saakyan has thebacking of Serzh
Sarkisyan, Armenia’s powerful prime minister.

There has been so much speculation on this subject that,speaking at a
round table entitled, "NKR Presidential Elections: aView from
Yerevan," Arman Melikyan, an aide to Arkady Gukasyan,abruptly refused
to participate in the discussion, calling intoquestion the legitimacy
of discussion on the NKR’s internalpolitical matters being organized
in Yerevan. He said that thediscussion per se could be seen as
interference in the republic’sinternal affairs and as an attempt to
exert pressure on the courseof the election campaign "by third
states," which referred not onlyto Armenia but also to Russia, since
the round table was held inthe offices of the Regnum Russia news
agency’s Trans Caucasusbureau.

UNRECOGNIZED ELECTIONS

Commenting on the upcoming presidential election in NagornoKarabakh,
Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mamedyarov said thatuntil the
Azerbaijani community is repatriated, any elections inthe NKR "are
illegitimate and will not be recognized by anyone."

Meanwhile, the international community has already indicatedin no
uncertain terms that it will not recognize the elections inthe NKR.
This was announced, in particular, by Terry Davis,secretary general
of the Council of Europe, who reiterated thatNagorno Karabakh is a
part of Azerbaijan. That immediately eliciteda flow of angry
comments. Thus, according to Gukasyan, Davis’sstatement was
irrelevant, while his stance could not affect the NKRin any way. It
was simply that "international organizations havecertain standards
beyond which they may not go," the Karabakhleader concluded. For his
part, Ashot Gulyan, speaker of theKarabakh parliament believes that
"Davis’s opinion is typical ofEurope’s conservative political circles
who do not recognizeobjective positive trends in world politics. Such
statements aredestructive, hampering the establishment of a
constructive dialoguebetween the Armenian and the Azerbaijani
peoples." Vardar Oskanyansent Terry Davis a letter, asking him "to
explain what exactly hemeant when referring to Karabakh," and saying
that he would lookforward to hearing from him. At the same time, as
is known, the Westdoes not recognize any elections in areas of
"frozen conflicts."

The European community was far more concerned by the collisionthat
occurred in Armenia’s National Assembly over an array ofamendments to
the Law on Television and Radio. Should they beadopted, some media
outlets, in particular Radio Liberty, would beunable to broadcast on
the frequency used by Armenia’s TRK publicradio. Not surprisingly,
this prospect evoked harsh criticism inthe republic: a mass picket
and a demonstration in support offreedom of expression were held in
Yerevan. The amendments alsoirked many deputies, including members of
the governing coalition.According to some MPs, they could discredit
the newly electedparliament. As a result, the bill was rejected.
Liberty survivedfor the time being.

FACT BOX

The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, a region in Azerbaijanwith a
largely Armenian population, first erupted in 1988 when itdeclared
its independence from Azerbaijan, and moved to joinArmenia. Over
30,000 people were killed on both sides between 1988and 1994, and
over 100 died following a 1994 ceasefire.Nagorno-Karabakh remained in
Armenian hands, but tensions betweenAzerbaijan and Armenia have
persisted. Azerbaijan is determined torestore its control over the
separatist region.