ANALYSTS WARN OF POLITICALLY MOTIVATED VIOLENCE PRIOR TO POLLS
E. BariÞ AltintaÞ Ýstanbul

Today’s Zaman, Turkey
July 16 2007

Observers share worries that a provocative attack, such as a bombing
or the assassination of a key public figure, could be staged in an
attempt to influence public opinion ahead of this Sunday’s general
elections, the Star daily reported in yesterday’s issue.

As the general election on July 22 draws near, Turkey, which has
in recent years seen political murders, bombings and other acts of
provocation as well as a more recent rise in the number of attacks
from Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) terrorism, is uneasy due to
concerns that attacks could be staged in this very sensitive period,
according to terrorism and intelligence experts.

In a phone interview with Today’s Zaman, president of the International
Strategic Research Organization (ISRO/USAK) Dr. Sedat Laciner stated
that experience has shown that assassinations or bombings have been
common in Turkish history during critical periods.

"In the last stretch before the July 22 election, I expect acts aimed
at affecting the results of the election. I am worried that there
might be provocations in the final week," Laciner said.

Laciner also said the upcoming election was most critical because
it will determine more than the prime minister, adding: "If the
outcome of the ballot doesn’t give a clear idea about the outcome of
the presidential election, then we should still expect bombings or
assassinations." Depending on the number of seats the Justice and
Development Party (AK Party) majority will have, or the reluctance
or willingness of other parties in Parliament to back the AK Party in
the presidential vote, the crisis might be resolved or heightened. In
other words, we should be expecting more attacks, bombings or murders
until Turkey resolves its presidential crisis."

Political scientist Mumtaz’er Turkone, in a column that appeared in
the Zaman daily on Sunday, expressed the same fear. Recalling that the
Washington-based neoconservative think tank the Hudson Institute had
discussed nightmarish scenarios for Turkey, Turkone called on readers
to ponder for a minute the potential effect of a bomb explosion in
the middle of the week, killing hundreds. He also said an attempt to
create chaos prior to the elections was a very strong possibility,
recalling the Madrid explosions of 2004 that killed nearly 190 and
injured thousands.

Turkone offered his opinion that the only way to prevent such an act
of provocation would be to express openly and vocally the probability
of that risk becoming a reality. "First, let’s take a look at the
purpose. Such an act would be staged, as it was in Spain, in order
to affect the election results. The bombs that exploded in Spain
on March 11, 2004 were enough to change the expected results of
the elections on March 14. Jose Maria Aznar lost the elections and
Spain’s current Prime Minister [Jose Luis Rodriguez] Zapatero won
the elections against all expectations," he explained.

He said the only purpose served by such an act — an act costing
hundreds of lives ahead of the election — would be influencing
the ballot. Crime gangs nested within the state hierarchy, whose
existence recently came to light in a number of police operations,
could easily stage such an attack, Turkone said, stressing that the
only way to prevent such an attack would be to expose the plans. He
called on politicians to expose and decipher recent incidents to
"eradicate the expected political consequence of a terrorist act by
way of a conscious intervention."

Attacks might backfire

Mahir Kaynak, a former senior intelligence officer and a strategy
expert, does not agree. "I am taking a risk to say this, and saying
it. There will be no provocations," he told Today’s Zaman in a
telephone interview.

Kaynak expressed doubts that most of the terrorist acts staged in big
cities claimed to have been committed by the PKK were actually staged
by this group. "All these [provocative] operations are over. From
this point on there can be no influencing the elections. I think the
provocation period is over," he said. He said circles possibly aiming
to stage such an attack would not do so because "such an operation
would create backlash" and change the election results in a way
sources of such violence wouldn’t want.

But who are these sources? "It is obvious that they are targeting
the AK Party," said Bulent Orakoðlu, a former intelligence officer.

Orakoðlu stated that presidential election periods in Turkey have
traditionally been difficult due to a number of factors, including the
extensive authorities granted to the president in the 1982 constitution
and the country’s strategic location. He also cited the political
murders, provocations and a suspicious professionalization and
escalation in the attacks of the PKK happened in the past few years.

Orakoðlu believes that a destructive explosion would send the message
that the AK Party is ineffective in fighting terrorism. Referring
to recent arms-depots uncovered in anti-terror operations, he said
a couple of tons of ammunition are thought to be currently stored
in the hands of various gangs or crime groups. "And the polls are
indicating that support for AK Party has gone up to 40 percent from
34 percent. Although they are likely to lose seats in Parliament,
their electoral support will be fortified," Orakoðlu said. He also
indicated there is a high possibility that a terrorist attack could
occur ahead of the elections. "And also after the elections," he added,
"Until the presidential election period is over, I am expecting to
see bombings or political murders."

However Orakoðlu was not entirely pessimistic. He noted that police
are currently conducting extensive intelligence on various gangs,
their leaders and the links between such criminal organizations that
have access to state power or influential people in state agencies.

Orakoðlu expressed belief that gangs in Turkey, which have been
found to be behind a large number of incidents — from the Council
of State shooting last year, a bombing in the southeastern town of
Þemdinli in November 2005 and even, as his lawyers assert, the murder
of Armenian-Turkish journalist Hrant Dink — took their orders from
centers outside the country. "The US, Italy and Germany were found
to have supplied arms to the PKK," he said, citing an example.

Another observation Orakoðlu shared is that the attempts to overthrow
a democratically elected government have not really worked. Recent
polls suggest that the AK Party is not only going to be the leader
of the elections, but also increase its vote. "People are owning
up to their own votes and the national will," he said, underlining
that the public is less susceptible to provocation and more aware of
manipulation than in the past.

Orakoðlu also said he had strong reason to believe that the government
is aware of a master plan unleashed against the AK Party.

"The reason here haven’t been too many acts is because the General
Staff and the Prime Ministry showed that they share a consensus
on certain issues," he said. This lowered tension in the political
atmosphere and reduced polarization of the society. "The government
has decreased the tension with well-made, but also secret, decisions
it has taken," he claimed.

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