RUSSIA’S SUSPENSION OF CFE WON’T CREATE NEW ARMS RACE IN SOUTH CAUCASUS
By M. Alkhazashvili
(Translated by Diana Dundua)

The Messenger, Georgia
July 18 2007

In a little less than 150 days, Russia’s suspension of the Conventional
Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty will take effect.

This suspension means that the rules of the game that existed between
Russia and NATO and Russia and the US are no longer in force. Now
Russia is free to deploy as many of its tanks or aircraft it feels
necessary in Europe and stop providing information and allowing
inspections of its heavy conventional weapons. But this decision
could affect the rules of the game in the South Caucasus just as
significantly.

Former Georgian president Eduard Shevardnadze, who helped negotiate
the CFE agreement as foreign minister in the Gorbachev administration,
is nervous about the move.

"I believe this step is the first move towards reviving the Cold War,"
Shevardnadze commented on Monday.

He believes this is a response to US President Bush’s proposal to
put missile defense components in Eastern Europe.

Shevardnadze also doesn’t rule out that Russia might fortify its border
with Georgia with armed forces as "an element of extra pressure."

Armenia and Azerbaijan are also worried about how the decision will
affect their relationship.

Armenian analysts are worried that since Russia has made the first
move, Azerbaijan will follow suit (especially with the aid of a
significantly increased defense budget) effectively setting off a
new wave of military build-ups on the borders in the South Caucasus.

Azerbaijan is concerned about a stronger Russian military presence
in the Caucasus, especially in its conflict zone of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Azerbaijan also worries about the 102nd military base located in
Gyumri. As the Russian base in Akhalkalaki, Georgia is being closed
down, many of the Russian troops and equipment are being sent to the
closest military base located in Gyumri, Armenia.

Georgia has also expressed concern about the closure of the Russian
military base located in Gudauta in Abkhazia. Russia claims it has
pulled out equipment and military hardware from Gudauta but Tbilisi
says it is necessary to maintain constant international monitoring
of the region. Ex-foreign minister Salome Zourabichvili agrees this
could pose problems in the future.

Another former foreign minister, Irakli Menagarishvili, now the head
of the thinktank Georgian Council on Foreign Relations, also thinks
Russia’s decision will complicate issues in the South Caucasus.

He told Civil Georgia this will especially cause problems for
Moldova because, "Russia has been refusing to launch withdrawal
[of its military bases] from this country."

While Russia’s suspension of the CFE treaty could theoretically
make existing problems in the region even bigger, more than likely
Putin’s decision to withdraw from the pact wasn’t targeted for the
South Caucasus and these problems would have remained with or without
a CFE treaty.