THE SITUATION MAY DETERIORATE ABRUPTLY
Vardan Grigoryan

Hayots Ashkharh Daily
18 July 07

As we know on July 14 Vladimir Putin signed a decree on "the
Denunciation of the Treaty of Conventional Armed Forces in Europe and
Relevant International Treaties by the Russian Federation". Under that,
the "Treaty of Conventional Armed Forces in Europe" signed in Paris
on November 19, 1990 and the supplementary treaties signed in Budapest
in 1990, Tashkent – in 1992, Vienna – in 1996, and finally Istanbul –
1999 are denounced in the territory of the Russian Federation.

This means, if during the coming five years the relations between
Russia and NATO or to be more precise Russia and the United States
don’t improve, there will be no treaty to limit the conventional arms
race in the western part of Eurasian Continent.

Why did the President of the Russian Federation take this abrupt step?

The treaty signed on November 19, 1990 was aimed at the reduction of
the military confrontation of the member states of NATO and Warsaw
treaties. And though the organization of Warsaw treaty doesn’t exist
any more, the armaments of NATO fulcrums constructed in Bulgaria and
Romania is "calculated" upon NATO’s balance. That is to say NATO member
states, in fact, didn’t meet the terms of the treaty, firstly in the
sphere of the so called "wing limitations". While Russia and other
CIS countries (including Armenia), acted in accordance with their
obligations, because thus they could somehow suppress NATO’s steps.

The denunciation of the Treaty of Conventional Armed Forces in Czech
Republic and Poland was an attempt to counteract the location of
American Anti Air Defense forces there. But because the USA never
retreat, this can lead to the collapse of one of the basic elements
of the post-cold-war European security system. Consequently a serious
precedent is created to shift this global process into our region. All
the countries that have met the terms of the treaty can’t avoid being
concerned about this fact.

This is how we can explain the July 16 announcement made by the
Press-Secretary of Armenian Foreign Ministry V. Karapetyan, "The
Treaty of Conventional Armed Forces in Europe" is in effect for not
more than 150 days and we hope that the member states will manage to
surmount the disagreements through dialogues."

Unlike Armenia’s hope to save the treaty and to impede future arms
race, Azerbaijan’s evaluation regarding Russia’s latest steps are
more pessimistic. The Press Secretary of Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry
Khazar Ibrahim announced yesterday that Armenia doesn’t meet the terms
of the treaty and hides some part of its armaments in the uncontrolled
territory in Karabakh. And Milly Mejlis MP Zahid Oruj is in panic; he
says " by this step Moscow eliminates the international supervision
on Armenia’s armaments" and that it gets an opportunity to supply
arms and ammunition to its ally.

What regional consequences can the July 14 decree signed by the
President of the Russian Federation have?

It is evident that the extension of Russia’s military presence in the
South Caucasus can increase Georgia’s desire to join NATO. Similar
dispositions can strengthen in Azerbaijan as well.

On the other hand we shouldn’t ignore the fact that Russia’s latest
step is absolutely not accidental, it is conditioned by the expected
final discussions on the issue of Kosovo’s independence in the UN
Security Council. This means, the strengthening of Russia’s military
presence in Transdnestria, North Caucasus and in an indirect manner in
Armenia and Karabakh as well, turns into a serious guarantee to find
"equivalent answers" for Kosovo’s independence.

As a consequence a really tough and ambiguous situation is created:
unpredictability of the military-political situation can turn the
competition between the super-powers into a danger of regional
wars. But in the condition of the present-day competition in
post-soviet territory to use the Kosovo precedent, the outcome of the
de jure recognition of the de facto status of the conflicting zones
becomes true.

In our view "The Denunciation of the Treaty of Conventional Armed
Forces in Europe" is an alarm call for Armenia, to get seriously ready
for the suspension of Azerbaijan’s last opportunity to give military
respond to the international recognition of NKR independence.