ARMENIA CONCERNED AT CAUCASUS ARMS RACE
By David Petrosian in Yerevan

Institute for War and Peace Reporting, UK
July 19 2007

Could dissolution of CFE treaty herald outbreak of conflict in the
Caucasus?

The sharp rise in defence budgets and accompanying militarization of
the countries of the South Caucasus is alarming the international
community. Growth in military spending in Armenia, Azerbaijan and
Georgia now exceeds GDP growth by 20 to 40 times.

For every million inhabitants of the South Caucasus, there are 75
tanks and 85 artillery pieces. This is a much larger proportion than
in the three big neighbours of the region, Iran, Russia and Turkey.

If you factor in the number of weapons in the three unrecognised
separatist territories in the region, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and
Nagorny Karabakh, the figures rise by around a third.

However, the militarisation of the region needs to be put in a wider
perspective. The Stockholm peace institute, SIPRI, calculated that
last year world military spending reached 1.2 trillion US dollars,
a rise of 3.5 per cent on the year before.

That suggests that, despite the end of the Cold War and efforts to
put in place a new international security framework, most countries
still believe that the best means of preserving their security is
maintaining an effective army.

Armenia’s military budget for 2007 was just over 271 million dollars,
or 3.5 per cent of GDP. The spending is based on a perceived actual
military threat from Azerbaijan and a potential one from Turkey.

The Armenian government rejects accusations that it is exceeding the
military quotas set by the 1990 Conventional Forces in Europe treaty,
or CFE, and says that it is keeping to the limits and preventing a
new arms race in the Caucasus. (Azerbaijan for its part accuses the
Armenians of maintaining weaponry outside CFE in Nagorny Karabakh. See
accompanying article).

Armenia has been accused of militarising the region by receiving
Russian weaponry transferred from the former base of the 62nd army
in Akhalkalaki in Georgia – now closed – to the Russian military base
in Gyumri in northern Armenia.

Armenian officials responded to this by saying that most of the
equipment transferred was vehicles and ammunition and that all
equipment in the Gyumri base remains the property of the Russian
armed forces, not of Armenia. They say that the whole process was
transparent and agreed with the Georgian government and that it
complies with CFE quotas.

Armenia is watching as Azerbaijan sharply increases its military
budget year on year and says that their neighbour is breaking its
CFE commitments. For example, in 2006 Azerbaijan declared that it
possessed 217 tanks and bought 41 tanks from Ukraine and Belarus,
thereby exceeding its CFE quota by 38 tanks.

Former Armenian defence minister Vagarshak Harutiunian said, "It’s far
from clear to what extent the OSCE and NATO can force Baku to keep
to the quotas set out in the CFE. In this situation, it is obvious
that Azerbaijan should either leave the CFE or observe it properly."

The Armenians say that Azerbaijan is trying to use its enhanced defence
budget, based on increased oil revenues, to try to force them to make
unilateral concessions in negotiations over the Nagorny Karabakh peace
process. However, they say increased military spending by Azerbaijan
is a necessary but not sufficient condition for achieving success
should fighting resume.

It is worth noting that a large part of Azerbaijan’s military
expenditure is being directed towards naval forces in the Caspian Sea –
and therefore not against Nagorny Karabakh or Armenia. Disputes over
this large and energy-rich basin are a potential source of conflict
in the future. Baku is also compelled to keep some of its forces in
other parts of the country, such as the southern border, to repel
other potential threats.

"The Armenian side in response to Azerbaijan’s purchase of expensive
offensive weaponry is giving its preference to cheaper defensive
weapons systems," said Sergei Minasian, a military expert who is
deputy director of the Caucasus Media Institute in Yerevan.

"[Armenia] is also using sensibly its membership of the CIS Collective
Security Pact and its alliance with Russia. For example at the end
of 2006, Baku bought expensive modern MiG-29 fighter aircraft from
Ukraine. And just around the same time there was an announcement that
the Russian-Armenian anti-aircraft system on the territory of Armenia
had been replaced by a more up-to-date system and put on a state of
battle alert."

Both NATO and Russia are contributing to the increased militarisation
of the South Caucasus. The argument can be made that both NATO and
the CIS Collective Security Pact have their place in the region
and the two are in a state of competition for allegiance rather than
outright hostility. NATO’s activities in the region have been met with
understanding in Armenia, which has hosted NATO training exercises.

However, up till now, relative stability has been guaranteed in large
part due to a military balance, whose cornerstone has been the CFE
treaty. If the CFE treaty begins to unravel that could lead to a
destabilisation and rise in tension in the South Caucasus, with the
threat of unresolved conflicts flaring up again.

David Petrosian is a political observer for the Noyan Tapan news
agency in Yerevan.