TRAIPSING THROUGH TRABZON
Michael Werbowski (minou)
OhmyNews International, South Korea
July 19 2007
On the campaign trail in Turkey
Trabzon is literally sandwiched between a steep mountain range and the
Black sea. High above the city there’s a palatial country residence
impeccably preserved were the father of Turkey’s independence Mustafa
Kemal Ataturk stayed on several occasions before and after the founding
of the Turkish republic in 1923.
This city is known more recently for some less illustrious citizens
such as the alleged assassin of newspaper editor Hrant Dink, an
Armenian. Not surprisingly, Trabzon is a stronghold of secularism
and unabashed patriotic fervor. In the city’s main square with its
imposing statue of Ataturk a rally was held this week for Republican
People’s Party (CHP) candidate Deniz Baykal. Founded in 1923 by
Ataturk, the CHP is deeply rooted in his teachings. The party calls
itself a "social democratic" movement but in reality Turks perceive
it as pro-market in its orientation.
In a festive atmosphere thousands of people gathered to listen to
traditional Turkish music and wave party flags. I paid a visit to
the city hall. An affable and young municipal clerk who has been
to Trabzon’s South Korean sister city of Pusan tells me this city
has little industry; in fact, its main source of income comes from
hazelnuts and walnuts. CHP leader Deniz Baykal yells to the throng that
came out just after a rain-shower to hear his speech — his pledge to
increase the price of hazelnuts. "I will develop and modernize this
city … and raise the price of hazelnuts." Just how he intends do
this seems to be a mystery for now. Nevertheless, his party has plenty
of support in this city. Cafer Hazaroglu, the local party "boss" or
representative, gave me his predictions for the local vote outcome:
The CHP should garner 36 percent of the vote followed by 28 percent
for the so-called "ultra nationalist" National Movement Party or MHP.
Turkish Politics 101
Readers of my previous dispatches from Turkey may have noticed some
figures were inconsistent with the facts in my reports. After a long
discussion with a Turkish lawyer on the flight to Trabzon, here are
the numbers: Out of 510 seats up for grabs in the upcoming Turkish
vote, 255 are needed for a government to come to power. The Justice
and Development Party (AKP) is expected to win about 310 votes and
rule with single-party status. Yet there is talk, or rumor rather,
of CHP and MHP joining forces with one another in the next parliament.
In response to such speculation, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
has threatened to resign if his party does not obtain an absolute
majority on July 22.
In the lawyer’s estimation (from the discussion on the plane) the
ruling AKP should get 38-40 percent of the vote followed by the
CHP with 19-22 percent and the MHP at around 10-13 percent. Other
minor parties such as the Democratic Left Party (DSP) might get
7-9 percent. The Young Party, founded by a young and controversial
businessman — Cem Uzan — who is strongly opposed to Turkey’s
entry in the European Union, might obtain 6-8 percent. Finally,
independents among some Kurdish nationalists calling for a separate
Kurdish state in southeastern Turkey might receive around 6-8 percent
of the vote. However, here is the important catch: any party that
does not reach the 10 percent threshold won’t make it into parliament.
A Chat With Trabzon’s Honorary Council
Ihsan Alioglu is Trabzon’s Honorary Council representing Germany. The
distinguished doctor took some time away from his patients to speak
with me about Turkish politics. In Trabzon the extreme right is very
strong, he said, "but not in a fanatical spirit." In his view, it’s
more like "patriotism" and love for the nation. As for the fiery
slogans and rhetoric in this election, Alioglu believes it’s meant
to stir up emotions. "The politicians wish to incite the passions of
the people to win them over and their votes," he explained.
Alioglu went on to tell me how important the army is in Turkish
society and that this institution has fostered a sense of secularism
and pride among Turks. There is no doubt in my mind that there is a
polarization in Turkish society between its Westernized facets and its
increasingly Islamist ones. Which side prevails may be decided by the
youth of this country, who hold the real balance of power as voters. I
am enlightened to a fascinating fact: Turkey has 30 million people
under the age of 30. This demographic reality will, it seems to me,
either underpin or unhinge Turkish democracy. On Turkey’s European
aspiration, Alioglu said, "Turkey will open more westward … but
the door has to be opened also more on the EU side." Of course, this
will depend on how much more open the big players such as France and
Germany will be to Ankara.
On my brief visit to Trabzon, I encountered Turkish journalists who
appeared as tired as I was from traveling and the persistent heat. As
part of a brief reprieve to the frenzied pace of the elections I
enjoyed a portion of the local fish called Hamsi, a local delicacy.
Afterward to went down to the seashore and watched supertankers float
on the horizon wondering if the people of Trabzon will really count
in this national election.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
