FORTUNE – A WHIMSICAL LADY
Vardan Barseghyan

Hayots Ashkharh Daily
21 July 07

The fact that there is already a large army of potential presidents
in our reality is, of course, beyond any argument. However, no truth
beyond any argument is true to an extent not to be argued once again.

Generally, announcing about one’s intention to run for Presidency about
a year prior to the elections is not only an unaccepted phenomenon;
it is simply rather dangerous. Such kind of candidate may not even
"survive" till the registration time as he will burn down in the
thick layers of the political atmosphere. This is the reason the
authority in power is not hasty in publicizing the name of its legal
successor. It needs no false start.

The situation is quite different in case of the Opposition. It has
nothing to lose. Actually, none of the candidates of this camp even
dream about victory; with regard to the struggle of internal views
(as to which of them will obtain more votes), its result does not
even exceed those of the social polls. To declare of one’s intentions
a month later or sooner does not make any difference in principle.

At present, our society does not consider the opposition a powerful
tool.

And, by and large, it doesn’t need it either. Although, the
opposition itself has not so far given any occasion for being treated
otherwise. All its plans fell flat during the recent years.

And they are no longer viewed as a serious alternative by anyone. The
fate of the relatively more significant pro-opposition parties bearing
the mark of failure may arouse nothing more than sympathy among
their proponents, but never a desire to trust them once more. Whereas
pro-Opposition candidates’ participation in the Presidential campaign
is a must for our country. But no plural form is allowed. What we
need is a unanimous candidate. And such candidate is, of course,
capable of competing with the pro-Government candidate in the
"competition program". But the public has the right to anticipate
at least a "demonstrative speech". It is required to demonstrate an
alternative. To demonstrate that there are people inside the country
who are capable of expressing public demands, e.g. Vazgen Manoukyan,
Arthur Baghdasaryan, Aram Karapetyan, Stepan Demirchyan, Artashes
Geghamyan. It may be any symbolic image, no matter his rating.

By the way, pro-Government authority is specifically interested in
this kind of "demonstrative speech". It has absolutely no grounds to
be afraid of competition with anyone. As to the fact that the mass of
protestant-voters will participate in the election, it is important
for the authority. The advent of the proponents of a united opposition
will raise the legitimacy of the elections both in the polling stations
and in the estimation of the world.

The only difference is that unlike different pro-Opposition activists
who have no hope for getting a prize, pro-Government authority at
this point is interested in the result. And such result will also
become demonstrative, and, most probably, in a negative sense for
the stormy-petrels. At that time, the country and the world will be
shown the true value of the national liberators and the extent to
which the people support them.

Therefore, there is a complete coincidence between the desires of the
public and the authority in terms providing the voters, including the
protestant mass, with a whole collection of alternatives. There only
remains one trivial issue: to elaborate the pre-election program of
the pro-Opposition factions and propose a united candidate. Nothing
of the kind has happened in our reality since 1996. May such attempts
be a success this time!

The important thing is not to lose hope, since fortune is a whimsical
lady, and it can shift the course of the events in a quite unexpected
direction.

Having written the "The Last Valve", an extremely pessimistic article
in 1907, Lenin left Russia for Switzerland. Later he went to Paris,
and there he started analyzing the reasons of the failure of the
revolution.

As shown by this analysis, anticipating a repeated revolution was
impossible in the visible future. Neither did the outbreak of the
1914 war inspire the leader with optimism.

Revolutionary symptoms were visible even in 1917, when Russia, together
with its allies, had just one step towards victory. However, it wasn’t
visible to such a talented political technologist as Lenin. Of course,
he would unceasingly encourage his proponents to follow slogan saying
"the worse for the country, the better". But he rather did this under
his momentum, orienting himself towards a certain perspective. But,
as a matter of fact, he was concerned about getting means of survival.

"We are starving, I pledge my word of honor," he would write
to his companions-in-arms in February 1917 and ask them to help
Mrs. Kruspskaya to publish the Teachers’ Encyclopedia, so that they
could earn a little money.

And all of a sudden, the public came to know about the dethronement
of Tsar Nikolay II.