KARABAKH TERRITORY UNDERGOES POLITICAL TRANSITION
Elizabeth Owen 7/23/07

EurasiaNet, NY
July 24 2007

The self-declared Nagorno-Karabakh Republic has a new leader, Bako
Saakian, who currently serves as the territory’s security chief.

Saakian has tried to cast himself as a proponent of democratization,
but his policy agenda at present contains few specifics.

Saakian captured more than 85 percent of the vote in Karabakh’s
July 19 presidential vote, with de facto Deputy Foreign Minister
Masis Mailian garnering just over 12 percent, according to final
figures released by the territory’s Central Election Commission. The
remaining ballots were split among three other candidates. Given
the lack of outside recognition of the territory’s independence,
the international community did not pass judgment on the legitimacy
of the vote. [For details, see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Despite the landslide win, Saakian has not yet issued any statements
about his election. At a July 20 press conference, Mailian, his
chief rival, depicted as the "pro-reform" candidate, stated that he
accepted the results, and described his contest with Saakian as a
sign of democratic progress for the breakaway state. [For background
see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Saakian’s security background – a fact often cited to indicate
his alleged "pro-Russian" orientation – may be the first trait that
comes to mind when outsiders analyze what lies ahead for his de facto
presidency. Supporters and opponents alike, however, stressed that
characterizing Saakian as a creature of the old Soviet KGB would be
a mistake.

Saakian, a Stepanakert native, began his career as a mechanic, and
went on to work on the restoration of historical monuments before
joining the pro-independence Artsakh Movement in 1988. During the
1988-1994 war with Azerbaijan, he served as a deputy and then chief
commander of rear defenses. After a short stint as an advisor to
Karabakh’s defense minister, he was named interior minister in 1999
and appointed head of the National Security Service in 2001.

"He’s not a Chekist. He’s not a career representative of the special
services," commented outgoing de facto President Arkady Ghukassian in
an interview with EurasiaNet. "[Karabakh’s] security service … and
the security service of the Soviet Union are completely different
things."

Mailian supporter Gegam Baghdassarian, deputy chairman of the
opposition Movement 88 party, asserted that the support of security
structures was less influential in securing Saakian’s victory than
was the strong backing of the incumbent executive, Ghukassian. "The
key role was played not by the security structures, but by the
president-in-office," Baghdassarian said. Ghukassian has rejected
the allegation, saying that his office maintained a neutral stance
during the campaign.

Both sides dismissed allegations that Russia played an influential
part in Saakian’s selection, while differing on Armenia’s role.

Outgoing President Ghukassian insisted that outside forces had, at
most, a minimal influence. "The last word is left to Nagorno-Karabakh,"
he said. Meanwhile, Baghdassarian described alleged pro-Saakian
Armenian television news programs broadcast in Karabakh as "done
deliberately."

In apparent contradiction to his official responsibilities, Saakian
portrayed himself as "not a pro-government candidate." To burnish
his outsider image, he stressed that his candidacy was supported by a
"civil initiative" that included non-governmental organizations. As if
to reinforce that point, Saakian’s official platform emphasized his
commitment to "broadening" the role of civil society in Karabakh’s
affairs – a process for which there is "no alternative," he stated
at a July 17 briefing.

Details of Saakian’s policy goals, however, remain vague. At the
briefing, Saakian stated that consideration will be given to examining
the "shortcomings" of outgoing President Ghukassian’s 10-year term
in office, but he declined to elaborate. "I don’t think there’s a
need to focus our attention right now on the concrete problems,"
he said. Ghukassian told EurasiaNet in an interview that he plans to
stay in Karabakh but does not "count on holding some sort of post."

Conflict resolution with Azerbaijan, which recently hit the $1 billion
mark for military spending, also looms large. Saakian has indicated
that he supports "a large format" solution to the problem of Karabakh’s
status, with the self-declared state directly participating in the
negotiations. At the same time, he declined to elaborate on concerns
about Baku’s military buildup, stating that this was "a question to
be discussed at the negotiating table. Not with journalists." [For
additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Few doubt that Saakian will act resolutely to defend Karabakh’s
political interests during the continuing peace talks. Opinion is far
from unanimous on whether Karabakh’s new leader will follow through
on democratization.

Saakian’s rival, Masis Mailian, built his campaign around commitments
to strengthen the rule of law and crack down on corruption. The
resulting image was one of a candidate struggling for something –
an image "very much respected" in Karabakh, commented presidential
administration analyst David Babayan.

Babayan, a supporter of Saakian, maintains that the territory’s newly
elected leader is also "a reformist," who will take into account the
varying points of view of the two pro-government and two opposition
parliamentary parties that supported his candidacy.

Some might question how Saakian’s lack of political experience will
play into his ability to maintain political unity in the territory.

But Saakian sees it differently. "I was a member of the Security
Council, I held a certain position in our state," he told a reporter.

"If I didn’t deal with politics officially, this doesn’t mean that
I didn’t deal with politics."

Commented Babayan: "This is the balanced way. We want deep changes,
but we want stability."

After over a decade of struggling to rebuild from the region’s war
with Azerbaijan, that message appeared to resound with many voters
– at least for now. "Orderly," "honest" and "predictable" were the
words most frequently used by voters to describe the former security
service chief, whose win at the polls came as no surprise to most
residents interviewed.

His background in intelligence is often cited as proof of an intimate
knowledge of Karabakh’s internal situation. "What he says he’ll
do, he does," said a Stepanakert gas inspector who gave his name
as Vladimir and claimed personal acquaintance with Saakian. "If he
says he’ll solve a problem, he’ll solve a problem, and, as you know,
Karabakh has a lot of problems."

Added one refugee from Azerbaijan living in the southern Hradout
district: "He used to be a simple person like us. Maybe that will
make a difference."