TURKEY: ERDOGAN’S AKP WINS NEW MANDATE
By Ben Judah

Spero News
July 23 2007

Turkey’s AKP landslide victory delivers Prime Minister Erdogan a
clear mandate to continue.

"Our leader is from the street, Our leader is from the street,"
screamed the ecstatic crowds gathered outside the Justice and
Development Party (AKP) headquarters in the working class district of
Beyoglu, in central Istanbul – an AKP stronghold and the very streets
that its leader, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan grew up on and
worked as a bus driver.

Inside the local party headquarters, as hundreds of activists and
supporters, gathered to watch the results come in, Ertan Simsek,
a key advisor to Erdogan, told ISN Security Watch he was satified
with the result.

"I’m jubilant, after such a tough campaign. This is a victory for
the people, and we won because we will bring the state closer to the
people at last," he said.

"There were so many divisions opened up during this campaign, but we
are a unifying force, not an Islamic force, but a conservative center
party. And we will unify by being transparent about who we are and
what the state is."

The AKP mayor of Beyoglu district, Haydar Ali Yildiz, said the
screaming crowds outside his officewere not celebrating the victory
of an Islamist agenda, or even a revolutionary one. "You see, a vote
for the AK party was a vote for continuity and stability, not rupture
or great change," he told ISN Security Watch.

"We won the confidence of the people that have so often been betrayed."

Activists where quick to point out that unprecedented in Turkish
history, the incumbent party had increased its share of the vote –
up from 34 percent to a stunning 46.3 percent, and that the party had
delivered strong economic growth and a historic opening of accession
talks with the EU. However, due to another opposition party breaking
the 10 percent threshold for entering parliament, the AKP will return
with fewer seats.

Western paint The campaign, which saw a rise in far-right sentiment,
mass rallies, political murders and bitter enmities, put great
stress on Turkey’s minorities, especially the Kurdish population in
the east which makes up over 20 percent of the population, and the
country’s 60,000-strong Armenian minority still recovering from the
assassination of writer and community notable Hrant Dink. Reportage
in the western press painted a picture of a nation poised between
Islam and secularism, which most Turks are quick to refute.

AKP supporter Mehmet Bayatkan explained that he supported the party
and had worked round the clock to make sure it won.

"I went door stopping every day, all day, something the other parties
don’t do because they’re not real people’s parties. Why? Because
the party is from the street, does a great job economically and
represents my views. I am not an Islamist. […] I don’t care much
for religion personally."

Verkin Arioba, a member of the Armenian community in Istanbul and
an AKP activist, dismisses the image of the campaign in the western
media as a struggle between the secular and the religious.

"It isn’t about that, it is about class. […] The elites created
much propaganda surrounding the supposed Islamism of the AK. They
want to increase personal freedom, that is good for the religious,
that is good for the Armenians, that is good for everyone and in line
with the EU negotiations."

Changing demographics At the headquarters of the secularist Republican
People’s Party (CHP) in downtown Istanbul, a party chief refused an
interview with ISN Security Watch on the election outcome.

The CHP, despite having merged with other smaller center-left parties
and received military backing, only won 20 percent of the vote.

Most distressing for the party was that while the AKP had previously
seen its support base restricted to the new boom towns in Anatolia –
such as Kayseri and the highlands – the CHP lost out to its rival
in many of the coastal regions, including Antalya, where its leader
Deniz Baykal is from.

The distribution of AKP and CHP votes is a reflection of one of the
major clefts in Turkish society, between the poorer, more traditional
center and the richer, more westernised coast and elite – though this
is weakening.

The broader electoral map saw the two opposition parties, the CHP
and the secuarlist and far-right National Action Party (MHP) garner
strongly localized results. These were the only two parties to pass the
10 percent threshold necessary to get elected, with 112 and 70 seats,
respectively – against the AK party’s 341. This means that while the
AKP may still be able to form a single-party government, it will have
to make alliances to elect a president and change the constitution.

In the east, however, is where the real surprises lay in store for the
new Turkish parliament. The Kurdish regions, mostly around Diyarbakir
and near Iraq, elected 27 independent candidates -all Kurds – who
will now form a new political party. This could see a far greater
push for Kurdish linguistic, cultural and even political rights,
especially if the AKP chooses to ally with the independents to
institute constitutional reforms.

Demographics are starting to worry the Turkish polity, as it is
expected that at current growth rates the Kurdish population could be
50 percent of the whole by mid-century. One of the unexpected results
of this election could see the slow move towards a bi-national and
bi-lingual Republic as the final answer to the minority question. Not
only has a major class shift happened, a cultural shift and an ethnic
shift has shaken Turkish politics.

Mazhar Alanson, a singer and Turkish cultural icon, told ISN Security
Watch he voted for the AKP. "I don’t see this is as Islamism creeping
in, I see this as a break with the past," he said.

For the westernized young, the fears seemed to be more class-based than
anything. Surreiya Tarbya, 19, who voted for the AKP, said that "mostly
people who voted republican [CHP and MHP] think that the peasants
are coming to the city from the mountains, and this scares them.

"It scares them that [Foreign Minister] Abdullah Gul is from Kayseri,
an Anatolian and religious city, and not one they understand. I think
people will give up now, and start to suck up to the new power,"
she told ISN Security Watch.

Military matters Since the country fell into political turmoil when
the military posted an online memorandum on 27 April expressing
its fears that the nation’s secularism was being undermined and in
alliance with the Republicans prevented Gul becoming prime minister,
fears of a coup have been running high.

Tariq, who sells fried sheep intestines in Istanbul for a living,
is not so worried anymore. "Look, they [the AKP] got 50 percent –
you really think the army is going to attack 50 percent of the
country? They can’t, they won’t."

With such a firm mandate the army is indeed left with very few options
and will have to continue to cooperate with the AKP.

However, what Turks refer to as "the deep state" – the web of networks,
secret services, army and elite alliances that have traditionally
been the arbiters of the political game here – will do is far from
certain. They may choose to prolong the political crisis and force
yet another election in October if no president is chosen with the
short month-and-a-half period allowed under the constitution.

A key test for the AKP in government will be if it is willing to
compromise by putting forward a different candidate – a consensus
candidate rather than Gul. It is open as to how much the party will
now wish to change the constitution. The AKP has made it clear it wants
a transparent state and this necessarily means a confrontation sooner
or later with the vested interests and the sinews of military power.

Constitutionally, the military is the official guardian of the
Republic’s secular system and is charged with protecting it at all
costs. But it also fears that as Turkey under Erdogan heads toward
the EU, European demands for constitutional changes could lead to a
reduction in its political power.

In the meantime, back at AKP offices in Beyoglu, frenzied activists
clustered round the television to watch Erdogan make his victory
speech.

This leader, who has done much to change Turkey in what many of his
supporters refer to as a "silent revolution," exclaimed in the accent
of the street he was born on, that "democracy has passed a great test"
with this election.

He pledged to continue his path of reform. Turkey had passed
a monumental challenge. Democracy has emerged strengthened and
culturally, the very Calvinistic nature of Turkish Islam is cementing
itself and the Kurdish issue has a chance of being resolved finally.

Ben Judah is writer and foreign policy analyst based between London and
Paris. He has previously worked as a reporter covering race relations
for the St Petersburg Times, Russia. This article was published by ISN.