ANKARA AND TEHRAN DO NOT HAVE TIME FOR KARABAKH PROBLEM

PanARMENIAN.Net
24.07.2007 15:00 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Tehran does not have time to deal with Karabakh,
and Azerbaijan’s position will hardly have a serious influence on
confrontation between the United States and Iran, Vice-President
of the Russian Academy of Geopolitical Problems Vladimir Anokhin
stated. He said, the existing moods in Baku do not satisfy Iran, since
President Aliev is under western influence. "Americans in their part,
do not like the situation when the issue of placing a military base is
being dragged out. Iranian Azeris will hardly be able to influence on
Tehran’s policy. There is no interest for them to create problems in
the north of the country in favor of Azerbaijan, since the political
situation of Azerbaijan himself is not stable," Alokhin underscored.

At the same time Vladimir Anokhin noted that Azerbaijan always
enjoys the support of interested Turkey, which has traditionally
supported Baku. "It is ridiculous to think that Ankara will change his
stance on the problem, especially if we take into account the tense
Armenian-Turkish relations. Ankara cannot influence on the situation
through military means, since Russia has located some of his troops
in Armenia. Instead, Turkey will not fail to provide political and
technical assistance to Azerbaijan.

Though the ways for providing assistance are limited due to the
absence of direct communications. The Osmanians have common borders
only with Nakhichevan, which is himself an enclave and does not have
direct ground borders with Baku.

But of course, Iran may join here. Since Nakhichevan has common
borders with Turkey, nothing horrible will happen to him in case of a
war. According to the Kars Treaty Ankara has obliged to protect the
region. And nobody will attack the former khanate until it attacks
Armenia. In case of the latter condition Russian ally commitments
will automatically come into force.

However, Turkey will not display great activity in the region. Turkey
has his own problems. The Armenian Diaspora has a rather serious
influence not only in South Caucasus, but also in Europe. Turkey
does not have strong positions. Ankara cannot join the European Union
because of his Muslim origin. It is senseless for Ankara to aggravate
the situation in the East when everything is not OK in the west
with Greece and plus the country is being refused to join the EU. If
an armed conflict breaks out, nothing will threaten Nakhichevan. A
change of power will take place in Baku. Opposition will immediately
make use of instability. Aliev may lose his power," Vice-President of
the Russian Academy of Geopolitical Problems underscored, Nakanune.ru
reports.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress