NEW PRESIDENT IN NAGORNYY KARABAKH A "PREDICTABLE" PARTNER

Mediamax news agency, Yerevan
21 Jul 07

Nagornyy Karabakh has held a presidential election on 19
July. Commenting on the Karabakh president-elect Bako Sahakyan,
the Armenian Mediamax news agency says that the election "did not
work miracle". Sahakyan’s election, the analytical article went on
to say, signifies that he will be a predictable partner for both
Yerevan and the Karabakh peace brokers. The new leader of Nagornyy
Karabakh cannot be a fully independent political figure as it is an
open secret that all the most important domestic and foreign policy
issues as well as economic decisions in Stepanakert are adopted with
Yerevan’s consent and there is no good reason to believe that this
tradition will be broken, the piece said. The following is the text of
weekly analytical review by Armenian news agency Mediamax on 21 July
headlined: "No surprises"; subheadings have been inserted editorially:

The 19 July presidential election in the Nagornyy Karabakh republic
(NKR) did not work miracle. As was expected, the former chief of the
national security service, Bako Sahakyan, was elected head of the
republic. His main rival Masis Mailyan, the deputy foreign minister
of the NKR, has already recognized his defeat.

Predictable choice

What does Bako Sahakyan’s election signify for a peaceful settlement
of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict? Chiefly, the fact that the NKR
authorities will remain predictable partners for official Yerevan
and for the international mediators.

Bako Sahakyan represents the "second echelon" of leaders of the
Karabakh movement (representatives of the "first echelon" are accepted
to consider Armenian President Robert Kocharyan, who was previously
the head of the NKR; Armenian Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan; and
the incumbent president of the NKR, Arkadi Ghukasyan, who was the
Karabakh foreign minister during Kocharyan’s presidency). He will
steadily adhere to those positions to which Stepanakert has been
stuck to over the last eight years.

In the course of the election campaign Bako Sahakyan said that "the
restoration of the comprehensive negotiations process will enable
them to avoid almost unfruitful discussions and concentrate on the
crux of the problem".

In a late June interview with Mediamax, he said that "no-one should
have illusions to the effect that the Karabakh problem could be
resolved without taking interests of the Nagornyy Karabakh people
into consideration". Bako Sahakyan noted that if he is elected the
head of the NKR, "the position of Stepanakert, which is a proponent
of Karabakh’s return to the negotiating table, will remain unchanged".

Commenting on the issue of possible handover of the territories under
control of the NKR to Azerbaijan, Bako Sahakyan said that the "key
problems of the settlement, including the issue of the territories,
are topics of comprehensive negotiations".

He said that the issue of NKR’s international status has been and
remains the key condition for the Karabakh side in the settlement
process. Once this is resolved, it is possible to consider the
consequences of the conflict.

"The territorial component along with the defence army of the NKR is
the basis of Karabakh’s security system, and we have no moral rights
to undermine this system when the conflict remains unresolved,"
Bako Sahakyan said.

Yerevan behind all important decisions

On the other hand, the Karabakh president-elect has become a
public politician only in the course of the election campaign
and, undoubtedly, he will need time to get used to the role of a
fully-fledged leader of Nagornyy Karabakh.

One should also bear in mind that given the current state of affairs,
when Armenia’s president is Robert Kocharyan and his most promising
successor as a result of the 2008 election will be Serzh Sargsyan,
another native of Nagornyy Karabakh, the leader of Nagornyy Karabakh
cannot be a completely independent political figure. It is an open
secret that all the most important domestic and foreign policy issues
as well as economic decisions in Stepanakert are made with Yerevan’s
consent and there is no good reason to believe that this tradition
will be broken.

The NKR president’s foreign policy role will directly depend on
the format of the negotiations process. It is already evident that
no changes will take place in the peace process until the 2008
presidential elections in Armenia and Azerbaijan. It is hard to
foretell how the continuation of the negotiations process will be
after the likely election of Serzh Sargsyan as Armenian president,
and almost doubtless re-election of Ilham Aliyev as Azerbaijani
president. If the negotiations continue in the current format (at
the level of the foreign ministers and the presidents of Armenia and
Azerbaijan), then the role of Bako Sahakyan, like the role of Arkadi
Ghukasyan, will be limited. Even though Azerbaijan agrees to return to
the comprehensive trilateral negotiations format, then in this case,
the role of Bako Sahakyan and his administration will undoubtedly
grow. However, we should acknowledge that there is no reason to expect
changes in Azerbaijan’s position.

Bako Sahakyan biography

Bako Sahakyan was born on 30 August 1960 in Stepanakert. In 1977,
he finished a secondary school; in 1978-80, he served in the Soviet
army. In 1981, he was employed as a machinist at the Stepanakert
mechanical plant.

In 1983-1987, he was a restorer at the Stepanakert branch of the
scientific department for the restoration of old monuments. Since
1988, he has been an activist of the Artsakh movement. In 1990,
he joined ranks of the Nagornyy Karabakh self-defence forces.

In 1992-1993, he was the deputy chief of the committee for the
self-defence forces of the NKR on rear service. In 1993-1995, he was
a deputy chief of staff for rear services of the NKR defence army. In
1995-96, he was deputy commander of the NKR defence army for external
relations. In 1997-1999, he was an aide to the minister of interior
and national security of Armenia.

In 1999-2001, he was the interior minister of the NKR. From 2001
to 2007, he was the chief of the NKR state department for national
security and the director of the NKR national security service.

Sahakyan is married with two children.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress