RUSSIAN EXPERT: FOR BAKU VICTORY OVER ARMENIA AND NKR IS NOT REAL

DeFacto, Armenia
July 24 2007

A national consensus that the Nagorno-Karabakh must be an independent
state has been reached in the Republic, that’s why the victory of this
or that candidate in the presidential elections will not principally
influence on the general situation, head of Caucasian department at
the CIS Institute Mikhail Alexandrov stated, PanARMENIAN.Net reports
quoting Nakanune.ru.

"The matter concerns nuances. Let us suppose that Bako Sahakyan
occupies a moderate stance and is oriented towards relations with
Armenia and talks with Azerbaijan. Masis Mailyan is tougher. He
is against returning the seven occupied regions to Azerbaijan
and supports more autonomous negotiation positions from Yerevan,"
Alexandrov noticed adding that in any case, politicians in Stepanakert
considered a dialog as the main vector for the settlement. At the same
time he stated Aliyev’s hopes to return Karabakh via dialog were naive.

"For Baku victory over Armenia and NKR is unrealistic irrespective of
its increasing military budget," Alexandrov believes. In his words,
the matter is not only in money, but also in fighting efficiency
of the army. "In addition, Armenia is tied with Russia by military
agreements, which supplies the Republic with the most modern military
equipment by much lower prices. Azerbaijan even cannot buy some
kinds of armament in foreign markets; nobody will sell it to Baku",
Alexandrov underlined adding that such a "cycling" may result in a
situation, when Azerbaijan will lose the seven regions serving as
a security belt around NKR He believes there is a chance to realize
the formula known as "peace in exchange for territories", that is,
Azerbaijan recognizes the independence of NKR, which in its part
returns the regions. "However, currently the time does not act in
Baku’s favor. The Kosovo precedent, which most likely will end by
unilateral recognition of the province’s independence by West, will
only contribute to intentions of Karabakh. The "fifth colony" and
overturn of power in Stepanakert are impossible, since there is not
a single Azeri there," Mikhail Alexandrov concluded, PanARMENIAN.Net
reports.