RUSSIAN EXPERT: FOR BAKU VICTORY OVER ARMENIA AND NKR IS UNREALISTIC

PanARMENIAN.Net
24.07.2007 13:10 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Politicians in Nagorno Karabakh have reached a
national consensus that the republic must be an independent state,
that’s why the victory of this or that candidate in presidential
elections will not principally influence on the general position, head
of Caucasian department at the CIS Institute Mikhail Alexandrov stated.

"The matter is about nuances. Let us suppose that Bako Sahakyan
occupies a moderate stance and is oriented towards relations with
Armenia and talks with Azerbaijan. Masis Mailyan is tougher. He
is against returning the seven occupied regions to Azerbaijan
and supports more autonomous negotiation positions from Yerevan,"
Alexandrov noticed adding that in any case, politicians in Stepanakert
consider dialog as the main vector for settlement. At the same time
he added that Aliev’s hopes to return Karabakh via dialog are naïve.

"Forceful solution is an adventure, which will result in Azerbaijan’s
break-up as a state. For Baku victory over Armenia and NKR is
unrealistic irrespective of his increasing military budget,"
Alexandrov says.

After all, the matter is not only in money, but also in fighting
efficiency of army, he noticed. "In addition, Armenia is tied with
Russia by military agreements, which supplies the republic with the
most modern military equipment by much lower prices.

Azerbaijan even cannot buy some kinds of armament in foreign markets,
nobody will sell it to Baku. Thus, it is groundless to rely on
blitzkrieg and superiority," Alexandrov underlined adding that such
a "cycling" may result in a situation, when Azerbaijan will forever
lose the seven regions that serve as a security belt around NKR.

He thinks that still there exists a chance to realize the formula known
as "peace in exchange for territories", that is, Azerbaijan recognizes
the independence of NKR, which in his part returns regions. "However,
currently the time does not act in Baku’s favor. The Kosovian
precedent, which most likely will end by unilateral recognition of the
province’s independence by West, will only contribute to intentions
of Karabakh. The "fifth colony" and overturn of power in Stepanakert
are impossible, since there is not a single Azeri there," Mikhail
Alexandrov concluded, Nakanune.ru reports.

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