ARMENIANOW: "THEY AIM TO ISOLATE ARMENIA"
AZG Armenian Daily #141
Armenian Assembly of America
27/07/2007
The Armenian Assembly of America would like to call your attention
to the following news analysis by Jirair Haratunian, a member of the
Assembly’s Board of Trustees, entitled "They Aim To Isolate Armenia."
Haratunian’s column was published today by ArmeniaNow
internet journal and is also available at the following link:
e&AID=2413
Earlier this month, the Assembly and ArmeniaNow announced a new
partnership intended to reach Armenia and the Diaspora with news
of the Assembly’s advocacy work in the U.S and matters of general
interest from Armenia. The partnership is made possible through an
Assembly grant to ArmeniaNow.
THEY AIM TO ISOLATE ARMENIA
A news analysis by Jirair Haratunian
Every other day, it seems, the president of Azerbaijan warns that if
peace negotiations fail he will use military force to retake Nagorno
Karabakh. He declares that Azerbaijan’s oil revenues will enable his
military to become so powerful that victory will be inevitable. He
also boasts that he will exploit Azerbaijan’s economic success to
isolate and render Armenia useless. This hysterical rhetoric has been
repeated again and again at home and abroad.
Unfortunately Aliyev’s dangerous visions gained some currency when
the Caspian oil pipeline to Turkey, via Georgia, was constructed with
strong American support.
The pipeline deliberately circumvented Armenia and avoided passage
through Russia. When the Armenian Assembly of America challenged
Washington’s endorsement of this project, the White House replied
that its policy was to encourage multiple pipelines to distribute
Caspian oil, not just the one. But in reality that was untrue. It was
obvious that Washington’s policy was to loosen Russia’s influence in
the South Caucasus and to lure Georgia and Azerbaijan away from Moscow.
>>From Baku’s perspective the door was now wide open to try to
exclude Armenia from other regional development projects. Its next
best opportunity was the proposal to construct a new regional rail
line from Kars to Baku, through Georgia, again circumventing Armenia.
The Turkish blockade had shut down the existing rail line that
transited Armenia. To forestall this project, Yerevan offered to reopen
that line and even pledged it would permit it to function without
Armenia’s participation. The offer was promptly rejected by Turkey.
This time the Armenian Assembly moved quickly and appealed to Congress
to prevent any possibility of American support or financial assistance
to the new rail line project. Important Members of Congress criticized
Baku, Ankara, and Tbilisi for initiating a project whose clear
intention was to exclude and isolate Armenia. With the full support of
the Armenian-American community, legislation prohibiting U.S. support
for the project was enacted into law. The Turkish, Georgian, Azeri
axis was stung by this action, but they still persist to build their
new rail line. Baku has offered to loan Georgia the funds to cover
that nation’s share of construction costs. Will the rail line be
built? Perhaps, but without financing from the U.S. or Western Europe.
The lesson for Armenia, the Armenia Assembly, and all other political
diaspora forces in the United States and Europe is clear. Any effort
that seeks to exclude Armenia from full participation in regional
development programs must be opposed.
For its part, the Republic of Armenia has largely checkmated Baku’s
ambition to isolate Armenia by linking Yerevan to all relevant
international and regional organizations. Armenia remains in full
membership of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation. It maintains a
strategic bilateral relationship with Russia and other post Soviet
republics through the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Yerevan
has developed a strong set of connections with NATO through the
Partnership for Peace program, and is an active participant in all
the bodies of the United Nations Organization. It has membership in
the World Trade Organization, the Organization for the Security and
Co-operation in Europe, OSCE, and is a participant in the sessions
of the European Parliament. These are strong antidotes to Baku’s and
Ankara’s isolationist machinations.
In addition, despite the twin blockades of Turkey and Azerbaijan,
the Armenian economy is growing annually at a double digit rate. The
London newspaper The Economist predicts Armenia’s growth rate at
10 percent next year. Also, Washington has named Armenia as one of
the early recipients of the Millennium Challenge Corporation grants
program, which envisions the investment of $235 million to upgrade
roads, water sources and irrigation resources throughout rural Armenia.
There is ample reason to be optimistic about Armenia’s
future. Certainly serious internal problems persist.
As in other developing nations, corruption, political malfeasance,
and social and economic inequality remain. But we must remember that
Armenia is still in a transitional stage. It is emerging from long
years of a command economy managed from Moscow, and has inherited a
political environment where one party rule brooked no competition or
dissent. Transition to a fully democratic state and a healthy market
economy takes years and requires a large measure of creative ingenuity,
coupled with patience.
At the same time, external dangers remain on the horizon. Turkey and
Azerbaijan are implacably hostile towards Armenia. Nagorno Karabakh
remains a frozen conflict with hopes, but little evidence of early
resolution. Armenia’s immediate neighborhood is plagued with severe
problems. Turkey is confronted with internal political and social
disputes where secularists are facing a resurgence of Islamism. It
faces a persistent Kurdish movement struggling for political and human
rights, and in neighboring Iraq an emerging Kurdish political entity
is gaining strength.
Despite all its bravado and banging the drums of war, Azerbaijan
remains a corrupt, unstable, and undemocratic nation that is vulnerable
to internal disorder. Georgia is burdened with separatist regions that
resist return to Georgian rule. Despite its Rose Revolution and active
support from the United States, Georgia is at odds with its northern
neighbor Russia, a problem that undermines its internal security.
Finally, Armenia’s southern neighbor Iran, faces a severe controversy
with the United States and western Europe because of its nuclear
ambitions and its clandestine support of insurgencies in the Middle
East. In the end, Armenia is destined to live in this dangerous and
hostile neighborhood, but in comparison with its neighbors, Armenia
emerges as the most stable state in the region.
With its growing economy and social stability, Armenia has
earned a large measure of self confidence in its fifteen years
of independence. However, this progress needs to be nurtured and
supported at home and abroad.
Armenia is fortunate to have the support of a far flung Armenian
diaspora. In particular, Armenia can rely on the large and influential
Armenian communities in the three centers of power most essential
to its well being: Russia, Western Europe, particularly in France,
and the United States. As for the Armenian Assembly, it will employ
its nationwide membership, its 35 years of political experience, and
its professional staff to ensure the continued United States support
and assistance for a democratic Armenia that is secure from external
hostility and holds the promise of a bright future for its citizens.