THE FUTURE OF ISLAM IN TURKEY – AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR EUROPE
RIA Novosti, Russia
July 31 2007
MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Pyotr Romanov) – The
Islamists’ recent victory in Turkey’s parliamentary election has
caused quite a stir around the world.
Russians have been discussing it much less than westerners, which
is understandable-the European Union has to determine whether to
take on Turkey as a member. Russia, however, cannot stay entirely
indifferent to the recent poll: it has neighborly relations with
Turkey, and Russian vacationers flock to its sunny beaches.
Russian political commentaries on the subject have been interesting,
though I don’t find them all convincing. Everyone highlights the
paradox in Turkey. The Justice and Development Party, led by incumbent
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which won a resounding victory
in the election, is possibly the country’s most pro-European force-but
its triumph has given ammunition to those who don’t want to see Turkey
in the EU. "Western democracy is denouncing democracy!"
certain Russian experts have sneered. They have a point, since the
election was perfectly aboveboard.
Some analysts have offered other arguments. The Moscow-based magazine
Vlast says: "Islam does not recognize the concept of a nation, so a
party inspired by its principles might be more effective than others
in dealing with the Kurdish issue, one of Turkey’s oldest problems."
In fact, the latest election has brought several Kurds to parliament.
This is especially impressive against the background of rumors
of an anti-Kurd operation secretly being prepared close to the
Turkish-Iraqi border by the Turkish army and U.S. forces. Pious Muslims
are admitting Kurds to parliament while secular-minded soldiers cling
to violence-that’s how the situation looks.
The same magazine makes another allegation: Western Europe is wary
of Turkey, with its dynamically developing economy. That’s why it
has chosen a wait-and-see attitude towards its eventual competitor’s
application to the EU.
The European Union was established by countries with strong economies
and tough competition between them, which did not prevent them from
coming to terms, as the pros of unity evidently outweighed the cons.
Later on, enlargement gave the EU countries with uneven economic
development and troublesome temperaments. For instance, the problems
caused by Poland could easily have been predicted because of its
drama-laden history. So the Turkish economic situation is a mere
technicality, which will not be an obstacle on its way to the European
family.
Turkey’s past, on the contrary, is a formidable obstacle. Ottoman
massacres and Muslim conversions through bloodshed are still fresh in
many European nations’ memory. Islam is widespread in several EU member
countries as a result of past Turkish conquests. Those countries are
now the victims of religious strife originally set in motion by none
other than Turkey. The problem is all the worse because Ankara will
still not even acknowledge what everyone else knows: the slaughter
of millions of Christians in Greece, Bulgaria and Armenia.
Last but not least, by admitting Turkey to the EU, Europe would throw
open its door to the Muslim world. Explosive social, religious and
political forces may come in Ankara’s wake. Upheavals may follow that
would make the recent riots in Paris look like child’s play.
The European Union is at a loss, meanwhile, on what to do about the
radical Muslims already firmly settled in Europe, citizens as well
as legal and illegal immigrants. Indicatively, the recent spate of
terrorist attacks have mostly been masterminded and perpetrated by
Europeanized people. As we see, they have adapted to European life
and values only outwardly.
Prime Minister Erdogan appears to be responsible and circumspect about
politics-but Turkish Islam will certainly outlive his premiership,
and who can tell what turn it might take under another leader?
A religious party in office under a democratic system is an absurdity
that promises no end of unpleasant surprises. Therefore, an election
that results in an Islamist landslide is cause for concern about,
not admiration for, the democracy that makes it possible.
True, an Islamist party has no use for the concept of a nation-but
the Kurds will be able to lead a decent life only with a moderate
like Erdogan at the helm. They would have a difficult time under
radical Islamists, who may yet come to power in Turkey. If they do,
the Islamist party can be expected to rally the nation through coercive
Muslim conversions, and Kurds will have a whole new set of problems.
So the Turkish issue takes some pondering, and the European Union has
every right not to hurry. It is the proprietor of a condominium in
which a new lodger could make trouble. Europe might pay dearly for
its hospitality.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s and do not
necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.