POSTURING OVER KOSOVO’S FUTURE REVEALS REALPOLITIK
By Shaun Walker

Russia Profile, Russia
Aug 1 2007

Interests and Principles

As negotiations over the final status of Kosovo continue, Russia finds
itself isolated, facing a united front of Europe and the United States
supporting supervised independence from Belgrade for the province,
which has been under UN administration since 1999.

A draft UN Security Council resolution based on the Ahtisaari plan
was finally ditched on July 20 after the United States and European
Security Council members failed to convince Russia to back the plan.

Russia continues to insist that no solution is acceptable that is
not agreed on by the Serbian government in Belgrade. With Kosovan
leaders stating that they will declare independence whatever happens on
November 28, and the United States hinting that it may well recognize
Kosovo whether or not it’s done through the UN, Moscow is perhaps
banking on the EU to start feeling queasy over U.S. unilateralism
and baulk at recognition not sanctioned by the UN.

Another round of negotiations will be held between Belgrade and
Pristina, but will almost certainly not result in any agreement. The
issue of status is a red line which neither side will cross. "The
independence of Kosovo is not up for discussion," said Kosovo
president Fatmir Sejdiu earlier this week. "The new negotiations
are the last chance to ensure support for the idea of Kosovo’s
independence." Meanwhile, Serbian Education Minister Slobodan
Vuksanovic told a local news agency that "the position of the
Albanian minority in the Serb region of Kosovo" was the main item
on the agenda. "There is no such thing as the Kosovo problem because
this region is an inseparable part of Serbia. There is just the open
question of legally creating autonomy for the Albanian minority,"
he told a local news agency.

But whatever happens, it seems exceptionally unlikely that Kosovo
will return to the fold of Serbia proper, and Moscow understands
this. There had been talk previously that Moscow might "give up"
Kosovo for concessions in other areas of international affairs,
but with a general frosting of relations over such issues as missile
defense, Russia has stood firm in its support for Belgrade.

Moscow may be trying to play hardball to extract maximum leverage out
of a scenario where the United States is forced to act outside the
bounds of international law. One such area where Moscow might seek to
gain the moral high ground is over the breakaway states on post-Soviet
territory. While the West has repeatedly tried to insist that Kosovo
would not set any precedent, Russian leaders have repeatedly compared
Kosovo with territories such as Abkhazia and Transdniestr.

"No conflicts are precedents and all conflicts are different," said
Sergei Romanenko, a Russian expert on the Balkans. "I’m against the
practice of trying to link what happens in one conflict with others."

But other analysts state that while all conflicts are of course
different, the Kosovo decision cannot but act as a precedent or
rallying point for other separatist regimes. This has long been clear
from comments made by the regimes themselves. Kosovo’s sovereignty is
all but recognized now," de facto Abkhaz President Sergei Bagapsh told
Kommersant on Tuesday. "If this decision is made toward the end of
this year, as we all expect it to be, it will enable other countries
to recognize independence of Abkhazia, Transdniestr Nagorno-Karabakh,
and South Ossetia."

"In both cases the current situation is a result of the collapse
of Communist empires," said President Vladimir Putin after the G8
summit this year. "In both cases we have inter-ethnic conflicts, in
both cases, this conflict has long historic roots and in both cases
crimes were committed. In both cases there are de facto independent
quasi-state structures."

Another possible reason for Moscow’s steadfast refusal to bow to
pressure over Kosovo is the long historical relationship between
Serbia and Russia, and a feeling that they let down Serbia in 1999.

Oksana Antonenko, senior fellow at the International Institute for
Strategic Studies, wrote in a recent publication for IFRI (Institut
francais des relations internationals) that the current Russian
leadership, with its newfound assertiveness, remembers the events
surrounding Kosovo in the late 1990s. "The first NATO campaign over
Kosovo was the beginning of the end for the post-Cold War strategic
partnership between Russia and the West. This campaign did more even
than NATO’s eastward enlargement to shape Russian perceptions of
the Alliance," wrote the analyst. "To many Russians, particularly
among the political elite, NATO operations in the Balkans-lacking a
UN mandate and outside NATO’s immediate area of responsibility-were a
watershed between the post-Gorbachev world and a new era of increasing
Russian-Western rivalry."

Romanenko played down the often-mentioned "special relationship"
between Russia and Serbia, based on historical factors, and the common
Orthodox faith. "All the things about a spiritual or intellectual
partnership I think are slogans that are used to cover the real
confluence of political interests," said the analyst. "There is no
real strong strategic partnership between Russia and Serbia.

Even in the past – right back to the beginning of the twentieth
century, both sides were always looking out for their own interests,
and now that same game is continuing."

Even if this is the case, Antonenko points out that the economic
relationship between the two countries is well advanced. "Russia
accounts for the greatest proportion of Serbia’s imports, 16.1%,
compared to 10.8% for the EU. Russia is also Serbia’s largest export
market," wrote the analyst.

But even if almost all elements in Serbian politics would draw the
line at giving independence to Kosovo, and are thus grateful for
Russian support, and even if bilateral economic links are sizeable
and growing, there is more and more of a sense that the long-term
future of the country lies with the EU, and not to the East. "Serbian
leaders are happy to use Russian support, but there’s no guarantee
that the situation won’t change and Russia will be in the strange
position of calling for things that the Serbian leadership is not
even calling for any more," said Romanenko.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress