NATO ALARM OVER ARMS RACE IN THE CAUCASUS
By David Petrosian
Gulf Times, Qatar
Aug 2 2007
YEREVAN, Armenia: A sharp rise in defence budgets by the countries
of the South Caucasus is alarming Nato and other members of the
international community, who worry that fighting could break out in
this energy-rich but volatile area at any time.
Military spending in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia is increasing
20 to 40 times faster than those countries’ respective gross domestic
products.
There are 75 tanks and 85 artillery pieces for every 1mn inhabitants
of the South Caucasus, a much higher ratio of weapons to citizens
than is found in such neighbouring states as Iran, Russia and Turkey.
And if you factor in the number of arms held by separatist
organisations in the region, that figure rises by about a third.
Each country offers its own justification for the surge in spending
on weapons.
Armenia’s military budget for 2007 was just over $271mn, about 3.5%
of the country’s gross domestic product. Officials insist the spending
is necessary to counter the threat posed by Azerbaijan and a potential
one from Turkey.
The Armenian government rejects accusations that it is exceeding the
military quotas set by the 1990 Conventional Forces in Europe treaty
and says that it is keeping to the limits and preventing a new arms
race in the Caucasus.
Meanwhile, flush with oil wealth, Azerbaijan has also sharply increased
its military spending. Its 2007 defence budget stands at just over
$1bn, a 28% increase over the previous year and 16% of the entire
state budget.
Some in Azerbaijan are urging the country to follow Russia’s lead
and quit the CFE treaty, saying the likelihood of renewed conflict
with Armenia over the disputed territory of Nagorny Karabakh makes
it essential that the country arm itself.
Such a conflict is exactly what has Nato concerned.
"Nato is worried about the mass arming in the zone of the conflict
over Nagorny Karabakh," Robert Simmons, Nato secretary-general’s
special representative for the South Caucasus and Central Asia,
said earlier this year after a visit to Azerbaijan.
Meanwhile, nearby Georgia is undertaking a breathtaking increase in
its own defence spending. Just last month, the government in Tblisi
announced it was increasing the nation’s defence spending to $569mn,
nearly double what it was only two years ago.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute,
Georgia currently has the highest average growth rate of military
spending in the world.
Some independent experts are worried that the spending is not fully
accounted for, while others say that it could undermine the peace
process with the breakaway territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
– MCT * David Petrosian is a journalist in Armenia who writes for
The Institute for War & Peace Reporting, a nonprofit organisation
that trains journalists in areas of conflict.