BY-ELECTION LEAVES LEBANON’S CHRISTIANS DEEPLY DIVIDED
Scheherezade Faramarzi

AP Worldstream
Published: Aug 06, 2007

Lebanon’s Christians were more divided than ever Monday after the
opposition narrowly won a bruising election pitting two of the
community’s most prominent leaders against each other.

The results of the parliamentary by-election underlined how neither
side in Lebanon’s political crisis _ the anti-Syrian government and
the pro-Syrian opposition _ has been able to decisively swing the
Christians to their camp.

Shiite Muslims, led by Hezbollah, are overwhelmingly behind the
opposition, while Sunnis form the backbone of support for Prime
Minister Fuad Saniora’s ruling coalition.

But Christians, around a third of Lebanon’s 4 million people, have
shown no such cohesion, splitting nearly evenly along ideological
lines. The split was made clear in Sunday’s parliamentary by-election
in the Christian stronghold of Metn, in Mount Lebanon north of Beirut.

The pro-government candidate, Amin Gemayel, a former president and the
head of one of Lebanon’s most powerful Maronite Christian families,
conceded defeat Monday after officials announced his rival had won
by a slim margin of 418 votes.

His opponent was a little known candidate, Kamil Khoury, who had the
backing of the most prominent Christian leader in the opposition,
Michel Aoun.

The result "reaffirms the existing stalemate," said analyst Rami
Khoury with the Issam Fares think tank at the American University
of Beirut. "It shows a very polarized Christian community, which is
not surprising because it reflects the situation in the rest of the
country and in the rest of the Middle East."

It also foreshadows what many expect to be a dangerous deadlock later
this year, when parliament must choose a new president to replace
pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud, whose term ends. Under Lebanon’s
division of power among its sects, the presidency must be held by a
Maronite Christian, but no Maronite leader can boost his bid among
lawmakers by claiming to represent the entire community.

Gemayel’s loss is a setback for his potential as a candidate.

The 65-year-old was running in his home district and had an implicit
endorsement by the powerful Maronite patriarch. He was seeking to
replace his son, Pierre Gemayel, who was gunned down in November in
an attack that government supporters blamed on Syria.

Gemayel got more of the Maronite vote than his rival _ 75 percent,
according to press reports. But Aoun’s candidate made up for it by
getting other Christians’ votes.

Aoun has said he will stand for the presidency. But the slim margin
of victory Sunday damages Aoun’s attempts to present himself as the
top Christian politician.

"Aoun is still a formidable figure but cannot really present himself
as the leading Maronite figure anymore. That’s probably the single most
significant element in the election," said Rami Khoury, the analyst.

Gemayel supporters blamed his loss on the large ethnic Armenian
community in the Metn district _ represented by the Tashnag Party _
saying Khoury was not representative of the Maronites, who form a
majority in the district.

Armenians are largely Catholic or Orthodox Christian. Maronites
are the largest Christian sect in Lebanon and once dominated the
country’s politics.

Many fear the stalemate may lead to the formation of competing
governments if parliament fails to elect a new president by the
Nov. 23 deadline, when Lahoud has to step down.

Saniora’s backers are hoping to finally put in place an anti-Syrian
figure in the presidency to strengthen their power. They rose to
control the government after Syrian troops withdrew from Lebanon
in 2005, ending Damascus’ decadeslong control of Lebanon. But the
political struggle with the Hezbollah-led opposition has since sapped
the anti-Syrian movement’s power and paralyzed the government.

Another by-election was held Sunday lawmaker Walid Eido, a Sunni
Muslim who was killed in a June car bombing there. A pro-government
candidate, Mohammed al-Amin Itani, won that race easily.

With the elections, Saniora still holds a slim five-seat majority in
parliament, but still unknown is whether the two winners will be able
to take their posts.

The by-elections were held despite Lahoud’s refusal to give his
approval for them, as required by the constitution, and his ally
parliament speaker Nabih Berri has said he will not recognize the
results. Moreover, parliament has been unable to meet for months
because of the political standoff.