EASING TURKEY-US TENSIONS FACES A CATCH
By Desmond Butler – Associated Press Writer
AP
Tuesday August 7, 2007 8:31 AM
WASHINGTON (AP) – Bush administration officials see Turkey’s recent
election as an opportunity to improve strained relations with an
important ally, but they face obstacles that may be beyond their
control.
One issue is in the hands of Congress, led by opposition Democrats:
a proposed resolution recognizing World War I-era killings of Armenians
as genocide – a view Turkey adamantly rejects.
The other issue is in the hands of the Iraqi government: a possible
referendum on incorporating the oil-rich city of Kirkuk into the
autonomous Kurdish region in northern Iraq. Turkey opposes the
referendum, fearing it could boost Kurdish separatists in Turkey,
and sees it as another example of U.S. policy gone awry in neighboring
Iraq.
"Turks would blame the U.S. for its failure to prevent the referendum
because they believe they hold sway as the occupying power,"
said Bulent Aliriza, the director of the Center for Strategic and
International Studies’ Turkey research program.
The United States wants to strengthen ties with Turkey, a strategically
important NATO ally located at the crossroads of Europe, the Middle
East and Central Asia. U.S. officials view Turkey, a secular democracy
with a majority Muslim population, as a model for other nations.
But relations have been strained, largely over the Iraq war. Turkey
refused to allow U.S. troops use its territory to invade Iraq in
2003, and Turks continue to oppose the war. A recent poll by the Pew
Research Center found the United States had only 9 percent favorable
rating in Turkey.
In particular, Turkey has criticized the United States for failing to
stop Kurdish guerrillas from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK,
in northern Iraq from carrying out attacks in Turkey. Some analysts
had feared that Turkey might invade northern Iraq ahead of the July 22
elections, to boost Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s nationalist
credentials.
Turkey did not invade and Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party,
or AKP, won an overwhelming victory.
The United States says this provides an opportunity for boosting ties.
Despite the party’s Islamic roots, Erdogan and other leaders are
seen as open to closer integration with the West and improving
U.S. relations.
"This is an optimal outcome," U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of
State Matt Bryza said in an interview. "The AKP is a known quantity."
Some critics of the administration say the White House needs to move
urgently to repair relations with Turkey.
"There has been massive policy neglect," said Richard Holbrooke, former
U.S. ambassador to the United Nations under the Clinton administration.
Holbrooke, who is now supporting Sen. Hillary Clinton’s Democratic
presidential bid, said that Turkey should be treated as the most
important strategic ally in the region.
But some of the difficulties come from congressional Democrats,
who are pushing for the Armenian genocide resolution.
Historians estimate that up to 1.5 million Armenians were killed by
Ottoman Turks, an event widely viewed by scholars as genocide. Turkey
denies that the deaths constituted genocide, saying the toll has been
inflated, and that those killed were victims of civil war and unrest.
Turkish officials warn that if the resolution is approved, they will
shut down routes to Iraq from Turkey that the U.S. uses to bring in
most of its military supplies.
The resolution has strong support in the House, but will hinge on
whether Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Foreign Relations Committee Chairman
Tom Lantos, D-Calif., bring up the measure for votes. Both Lantos and
Pelosi have previously supported it, but are under intense pressure
from both sides.
They agreed to delay action on the referendum until after Turkey’s
election, congressional aides say. But the expectation in Congress
is that it will likely pass this year.
The other source of tensions is the Kirkuk referendum, which the
Iraqi constitution says must be held by the end of the year.
Turkey fears it would be a step toward an independent Kurdistan and
could endanger ethnic Turks who live in the region.
But Iraqi Kurds have been adamant. Last week, the leader of Iraq’s
Kurdish region, Massoud Barzani, warned of a "real civil war" if the
central government does not hold the referendum.
The U.S. says the decision is for the Iraqi government.
Analysts say that the United States could achieve goodwill in Turkey
by ordering military action against PKK fighters holed up in remote
mountainous territory. But U.S. officials are reluctant to widen the
Iraq conflict, taking on new combatants and increasing violence in
what has been Iraq’s most stable region.
Democratic Rep. Robert Wexler of Florida, who advocates close ties
with Turkey, said that U.S. military officials have told him the
United States is closer to moving against the PKK.
"American and Turkish forces are cooperating to counter the
PKK in a more concrete way than they were six months ago,"
he said. "Counterterrorism operations and strategies are being
employed." He declined to elaborate.