SERGEI MARKOV: AZERBAIJAN IS GROWING EVER MORE FRUSTRATED AND DISAPPOINTED WITH MOSCOW’S SUPPORT OF ARMENIA
S. Rzayev
Translated by A. Ignatkin
Agency WPS
Defense And Security (Russia)
Source: Ekho (Baku), August 3, 2007, EV
August 8, 2007 Wednesday
Political Scientist Sergei Markov: Baku’s Stand With Regard To The
Russian Federation Is Expected To Stimulate A Shift Of Preferences
>From Armenia To Azerbaijan
An exclusive interview with Sergei Markov, prominent Russian
political scientist and Public House member convinced that a war for
Nagorno-Karabakh is still a grim possibility.
Question: One of the Russian TV networks was ordered off the air in
Azerbaijan not long ago. Negotiations over another TV network are
under way now and they are not exactly easy. What do you think of
this whole situation?
Sergei Markov: Russian TV networks encounter problems in Azerbaijan
due to the anti-Russian policy promoted by Baku. There are several
motives involved here.
First, Azerbaijan is gradually losing sovereignty and succumbing
to American turnover. It is American global geopolitical projects
that Azerbaijan is frequently involved in these days. The US Army is
quartered de facto on the Azerbaijani territory. American military
bases are installed under different names that do not really fool
anybody. Moreover, energy export from Azerbaijan follows American
scripts more often than not.
Second, the Azerbaijani leadership is getting ever more frustrated and
disappointed with Russia which it thinks is more pro-Armenian in the
conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh than it is neutral. The whole policy
of Baku these days is calculated to stimulate a shift of Moscow’s
preferences and sympathies from Armenia to neutrality, if not to
Azerbaijan. I do not think Baku is correct to do this. Turning
off Russian broadcasts or making anti-Russian statements is not
a way of encouraging a shift to Baku on Moscow’s part. It’s an
error of strategic magnitude. Azerbaijan’s alliance with Georgia,
participation in projects like GUAM and others cannot help Baku with
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. It is a mistake, it is movement away
from the solution and not towards it.
Question: Are you saying that Russia has been maintaining a
balanced and neutral policy in the matter of the conflict over
Nagorno-Karabakh? Russia retains a military contingent in Armenia
that has occupied a part of the territory of Azerbaijan.
Sergei Markov: If I were asked to give the ratio of Russian
preferences, I’d put it at 60 to 40 in Armenia’s favor. But Russia
is also trying to retain the status quo and whatever progress has
been made so far. Plunge the region into a major war again, and
nobody will be better off. Russia is aware of it. Moscow’s policy
is centered around the disinclination to make things worse than they
already are. It follows that the Azerbaijani leadership is mistaken to
regard Moscow’s position as pro-Armenian. Of course, Russia listens to
Yerevan with more attention, but that’s because Armenia participates
in the projects initiated by Russia. Projects like the CIS Collective
Security Treaty Organization. Azerbaijan, on the contrary, becomes
involved in the openly anti-Russian GUAM. I’d even say that Baku is
all but begging to shift the ratio of Russian preferences to 70 to 30.
Question: What do you think the existing dynamics of the
Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict settlement promises? Official Baku does
not rule out the possibility of a solution to the problem by sheer
strength of arms. It points at the ever growing military budget of
Azerbaijan and implies that the existing state of affairs cannot be
tolerated much longer. Do you think the hostilities may be renewed
again? What will Moscow do? Can Armenia count on Russian support?
Sergei Markov: I do not think anything will change in the immediate
future. Given time, with the economic development of Azerbaijan
continuing unchecked and the rift between Baku and Yerevan widening,
the Azerbaijan leadership will succumb to the temptation to settle
the matter with one bold strike and certainly try it. War over
Nagorno-Karabakh remains a possibility. We cannot say how it will
work out. We only see for the time being that Azerbaijan’s economic
superiority over Armenia keeps growing and that it will become colossal
at some future date. Armenia on the other hand boasts of its combat
prowess and claims that it will always be Azerbaijan’s better from the
military standpoint. In any case, I suspect that once Azerbaijan has
accumulated sufficient resources, some politicians or others in Baku
will certainly want to use these resources for a military solution
to the problem. As for Moscow’s positions, surely it will depend on
the then relations with Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Question: Is it possible to say that Armenia can safely count on
Russian support in any case?
Sergei Markov: Hard to say. Azerbaijan is not yet in the hole
anti-Russian forces have been pushing it into.