WAS IT A PYRRHIC VICTORY?
By Edmond Y. Azadian

AZG Armenian Daily
17/08/2007

Richard Hoagland’s withdrawal as the next US Ambassador to Armenia
by the administration was hailed by the Armenian news media, the
advocacy groups and friendly legislators. Armenian lobbying power
had scored a victory. But was it a victory against an individual or
against a policy?

By any measure Richard Hoagland cannot be labeled as an anti-Armenian
diplomat. But did the heat generated in the standoff between the
administration and legislators allow the nominee to realize that
there was no personal animosity towards him?

Once Hoagland became aware that the administration can ruin the career
of a diplomat for uttering the single word of genocide – as it happened
to Ambassador John Evans – he was not going to jeopardize his future
by opting for personal integrity versus an ill-conceived policy of
his superiors. That is why he refused to use the word genocide and
stuck to the administration policy line all along.

Armenian advocacy groups launched the campaign admirably in its
initial stages, gradually falling into discordance. Indeed, the
Armenian Assembly at one point decided that it was an uphill and
futile battle and gave up the campaign. The reasoning was that
Armenia’s government itself did not oppose the nominee when asked
by the State Department. Of course, it would have been politically
incorrect for one of the tiniest nations on earth to defy a superpower
in the nomination of an ambassador, but at the same time it would
not discourage Armenian advocacy groups in doing their job.

Sacking Ambassador Evans and nominating Hoagland twice for the post
are part and parcel of the same policy regarding the genocide issue.

The media, the advocacy groups, and members of the Armenian Caucus
on the Hill worked hand in hand until Senator Menendez’s hold on the
nomination brought to bear the salutary result. The administration
finally withdrew Hoagland’s nomination upon the latter’s request.

We cannot be naïve to believe that the next nominee, on his own, will
decide to follow Ambassador Evans’ path, unless there is a change in
the administration policy. Our fellow columnist, Harout Sassounian,
brings us to the next stage in this campaign by suggesting that the
passage of HR106 resolution will pave the way for a normal nomination
and the confirmation of the next Ambassador to Armenia.

Patience is running out in Armenian circles waiting for House
Speaker Nancy Pelosi to bring the bill to a vote, especially since
227 co-sponsors have already signed it.

The timing of the vote is highly sensitive and it is a political
issue. No matter what may be said officially, the voting did not
come earlier because it could have complicated Turkey’s parliamentary
elections in July.

No one doubts where the speaker stands on the issue, but the voting
will coincide with a policy coordination; that is when US is ready to
extract a concession from Turkey, or a policy reorientation by the
latter. Then the bill will become a bargaining chip in the hands of
the US administration.

Upon the passage of the resolution Turkey’s reaction is
predictable. Turkey lost the battle with a number of countries when
they adopted genocide resolutions.

Its initial reaction was to call its ambassador from the respective
country, yet in time the relations were back to normal with the
same country.

But the United States is not any country. Although the resolution will
remain a benign commemorative act, it still has tremendous bearing
on Turkey’s foreign policy. That will signify the beginning of the
end of Turkey’s denialist policy.

The next nomination once again will draw the battle lines. In the
meantime, Armenian advocacy groups have become more battle hardened,
the legislators are more aware of what the genocide issue means for
Armenia and Armenians and hopefully all these factors will chip away
the administration’s resistance to admit what is already so obvious.

When we ask whether the first stage of this battle ended in a Pyrrhic
victory, we hope history will come to prove that what we have achieved
thus far is more than that.

–Boundary_(ID_s2q2v8kw6A4ebaN6QdGqjA)–