STATUS BENEFICIAL TO THE "THIRD WORLD COUNTRIES"
Vardan Grigoryan

Hayots Ashkharh Daily Newspaper
21 Aug 2007
Armenia

Significant changes have been recorded during the August holidays in
the geo-political and geo-economic developments in our region.

The first and the principal tendency manifested during the recent
weeks was the strengthening of the military-political role of
Shanghai Cooperation Organization in the sphere of the Eurasian
security guarantee.

The second important fact is the Azerbaijani -American agreement on
studying the opportunities of building oil and gas pipelines through
the ground of Caspian Sea signed on August 16, which, of course not by
chance, matched with the summit of Shanghai Cooperation Organization
that took place the same day, in the capital of Kirgizistan Bishkek.

And finally the third noteworthy fact is the unceasing announcements
made by the ex-officials and political scientists of our neighbor
country regarding the expected Armenian-Azerbaijani war. This time
they link it not with "the liberation of occupied lands" but on the
contrary Russia’s intentions to teach "new lessons" to Baku.

Vafa Guluzade is particularly very worried about this fact. He
persistently speaks about the possibility of "new Armenian aggressions"
and even Russian intentions to eliminate Azerbaijan as a state. This
could be considered an expression of a hidden desire of a pro-western
political scientist to deepen the relations with NATO, had this
judgment not been based on the consideration of serious risks deriving
form the route of the export of Kazakhstani and Middle Asian power
generating substances that goes round Russia, Iran and China.

In this regard the announcement made by Vafa Guluzade about the
plan of Russian general headquarter to occupy Yevlakh and Gyanja was
absolutely not accidental.

In our view, the visit of Iranian President M. Ahmadinejad to Bishkek
and the apparent readiness of this country to become the 7th member of
Shanghai Cooperation Organization were also not accidental. It turns
out that there are serious obstacles in the preliminary refuge of
the cooperation in the sphere of power generating substances between
the leadership of Kazakhstan "suppressed" between Russia and China,
and Azerbaijan "suppressed" between Iran and Russia.

The cautious nature of the speech delivered by the US Undersecretary of
State Denial Salivan, on August 16, in the American Educational Center
in Baku is conditioned by this fact. Representing the "American plan"
of the development of our neighbor country, D. Salivan declared in
Baku that America is trying to make Baku a corridor of exporting power
generating substances, for which the letter needs peace, democracy
and consistent corruption fight.

It is natural that for America guarantee of peace in the only desirable
corridor that is only 10-20 km far from Karabakh entrenchments,
is twice valuable and significant, to export Middle Asian power
generating substances.

That is why Azerbaijani political observers that have recently
shouldered the responsibility of such an "answerable task" instead
of threatening Armenia with war try to stir interest in Armenia to
make part of the trans-Caspian pipeline programs.

Azerbaijan’s involvement in the current world confrontation for the
Caspian pond and the export of Middle Asian power generating substances
can definitely guarantee peace in Karabakh in the coming years. And
if in the near future Shanghai Cooperation Organization turns into a
real military political ally with a potential to confront NATO, then
in our view in that case countries, more powerful than Armenia will
"deal with" our neighbor.

After the superpowers’ military stage of confrontation shifts to the
East – Caspian Sea and Middle Asia, in comparison with Azerbaijan,
that has taken the role of the object of rivalry and meanwhile the
"linkage" of the two regions, Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh will
gradually obtain a status of a beneficial "third world countries."