NO GEOPOLITCAL REVOLUTION TO TAKE PLACE IN ARMENIA
Lilit Poghosyan

Hayots Ashkharh Daily, Armenia
Aug 28 2007

Prior to the opening of the autumn political season, the "analysts"
of the Armenian pan-National Movement are specifying a victorious
format for the Presidential elections in which the Opposition is to
act with one pan-national candidate (it is clear that such a role is
reserved for the ex-President). As to the opposite camp, it is to
act with two candidates ("Prosperous Armenia"-Republican coalition
and ARFD alternative). As a result, the candidate belonging to the
Opposition is definitely to hold a victory. To what extent is such
development of events probable? ARMEN ASHOTYAN, member of the NA
Republican faction gives answers to our questions.

"In general, political activeness decreases in summer, and autumn
is viewed as a starting point for new political developments. This
summer was specific, since the political developments recognize no
time and are not subject to seasonal procedures prior to Presidential
elections. It is, therefore, natural that the political forces tried to
make maximum use of the summer season as well, in order to strengthen
their positions and do their utmost to prepare for the ‘heated autumn’.

The press also demonstrated certain activeness which is, to my mind,
artificial. There was a certain vacuum in the information field,
and the lack of events in the sphere of public policy led a couple
of topics to become predominant during the August discussions.

However, I don’t think that the Presidential elections will pursue
the scenario you specify. Because, in so far as Dashnaktsutyun is
concerned, the decision to run for Presidency with a candidate of its
own has been mentioned many a time and, with regard to the Republican
party, Prime Minister Serge Sargsyan is already the main favorite and
the acting person of the electoral marathon that has already begun,
while the situation on the pro-Opposition front is totally uncertain."

"Does it mean you have no trust in the cafe discussions of the
pro-Opposition factions?"

"Regardless the negotiation formats and the meetings organized in
‘Metelitsa’ and other cafes, a number of pro-Opposition activists,
especially the leader of "New Times" party Aram Karapertyan and Head of
the National Democratic Union Vazgen Manoukyan have already announced
that they are going to run for election on their own.

On the other hand, at least for one or two of the activists involved
in the ‘Metelitsa’ discussions, the elections are, perhaps, the last
chance to increase their role and weigh in real politics. I mean,
first of all, Arthur Baghdasaryan for whom this is a last ‘historic’
chance to realize his own pretensions; therefore, he is unlikely
to give up his ambitions. Especially, when Arthur Baghdasaryan is
not perceived as a potential united candidate, at least in so far as
this format is concerned. Therefore, I believe that apart from Levon
Ter-Petrosyan or any other candidate belonging to the Opposition,
there will be other nominations as well."

"Do you rule out any chance that, having taken lessons from the
Parliamentary elections, the pro-Opposition factions will, nonetheless,
be more consistent in their quests for a united candidate?"

"If we try to understand what an Armenian Opposition means, we
must first of all state realistically that our pro-Opposition camp
consists of political factions that have contradictory attitudes, at
least with regard to a number of criteria, and first of all – their
ideological bases. The Opposition consists of political factions with
both obviously pro-socialist and liberal trends, and these factions are
unlikely to reach a common agreement as much as ideology is concerned.

Secondly, a great number of the same pro-Opposition factions have
controversial geopolitical orientations, beginning with emphasized
pro-Western views, ending with extreme pro-Russian attitudes. Agree
with me that in such situation it would be naive to discuss the issue
that the external powers will, all of a sudden, adopt a united attitude
and transfer the draw to the united Opposition’s camp.

Thirdly, let’s keep in mind the individual factor as well. Any
Opposition leader to some extent sees the chances of his progress in
the political career in the sphere of realizing his own pretensions.

And there is only one "chair" for the united presidential candidate;
there can’t be several united candidates. Besides, it doesn’t give
grounds to assume that for all its ideological discords, multi-layered
political structure and the divergences of individual pretensions,
the whole pro-Opposition camp is able to unite around one individual."

(to be continued)

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress