OPINION – LEBANON: DAMASCUS 1 – WASHINGTON 0
By Alain-Michel Ayache

The Suburban, Canada
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Aug 29 2007

It was obvious! The victory of Dr. Kamil Khoury, General Michel Aoun’s
candidate, over his competitor Amin Gemayel, former president of the
Lebanese Republic, was foreseeable. What was not, was the difference
in votes which carried the Aoun Front Patriotic Movement’s candidate
towards victory.

Indeed, the 418 votes which separate Khoury from Gemayel are indicative
on more than one level. The first being proof once again that Aoun
still has supporters in the Christian areas. Second, that he lost
the majority of them as one can deduct from these results.

>From the 70 percent of Christian votes, Maronites in particular
who supported him during the last national legislative elections,
a minor percentage remains in his favour!

This loss of popularity in the Christian camp finds its origin
in the alliance the General made with Hizballah and Syria during
his 15 years of exile in France- he represented for the Christians
Maronites in particular the spearhead of Lebanese nationalism and "
anti-Syrianism." However, since his return to Lebanon in 2005, and
in the name of a "national union," he multiplied political errors
while betting on the wrong players…

His detractors, forming the current majority of the Lebanese
government, are criticizing his political stands and his alignment
on the Syrian policy against the interests of Lebanon. Aoun however
defends the position of the presidency of the Republic. A main
position which he seeks to occupy under the pretext of consolidating
the presidential powers vis-a-vis an extremely centralizing Sunni
Prime Minister. A government that he considers as being a carbon copy
of that under the Syrian occupation, mainly because the majority of
the ministers in question were Syrian allies at that time. However,
if this "safeguard" of the presidential position is considered to
be important by the Lebanese Church, it is nonetheless clear that
the General is more than ever perceived today by Christians and the
clergy as an inappropriate person to fill it.

The Maronite Patriarch sought at several times to close the breach
between Aoun and Gemayel, but lamentably failed, mainly because of
Aoun’s stubbornness, his personality and his lack of respect for the
Gemayel family. That aggressive attitude was translated more than
once throughout Aoun’s televised declarations whose level of respect
against Gemayel approached more the level of a Syrian Moukhabarat
agent rather than one of a General of the military Establishment,
or even of a person aspiring to the supreme office in the country!

One realizes that the voices which brought Aoun’s candidate to victory
are mainly those of the Armenian camp, although only partly.

The FPM also got the full support of the pro-Syrian Progressive
Social National Party, closely tied to Damascus and depending on
Syrian funds. Aoun’s candidate also benefited from the votes of the
"naturalized" Lebanese who came from Damascus by buses "to fulfill
their civic rights".

Of course, a part of the Christians have also voted for the Aounist
candidate. They are the followers of Michel Murr, former Minister
of Interior and vice Prime Minister under the Syrian occupation
of Lebanon.

Ironically, Michel Murr’s son abstained from electing any of the
candidates. He is the current Minister of Defence and had been a
victim of an assassination attempt by the same people who killed
former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

For the observers and analysts of the Lebanese political scene, the
success of the Aoun "Patriotic Current" (Tayyar) in these by-elections
shows the capacity of the latter to obstruct the government’s
plans for Lebanon. A government he sees as unconstitutional and
non-representative of the will of the Lebanese people. However, these
results are only the preview of the electoral "fight" to come that
Christians in particular will have to carry out for the presidency
of the Republic. The candidacy of Michel Aoun for the presidency of
the Lebanese Second Republic, although announced, will undoubtedly
not receive any support from the Christian population that it is
supposed to represent. The major problem for the Maronites becomes
then, finding an acceptable alternative to Aoun.

Right now the American analysts think that the presidency of the
Republic will form the next round of the continuous bras de fer
between the American administration and Damascus.

However, Washington seems to have taken the initiative after this
"victory" of Aoun over the Siniora government by announcing the
blocking and seizing of all the accounts of American citizens and
known American companies that granted financial support to General
Aoun. Thus, and until the next presidential elections which should
take place at the end of September, the two camps seem to be ready
for one of the hottest autumns in Lebanon. Some are even speaking of
armed confrontations based on the continuous rearmament of Syria’s
allies in Lebanon…

Alain-Michel Ayache is a Middle East expert and teaches in the
Department of Political Science at the University of Quebec in
Montreal.