THREE POLES TO BE FORMED INSIDE THE OPPOSITION
Kima Yeghyazaryan

Hayots Ashkharh Daily, Armenia
Aug 28 2007

Interview with politician Gerasim Barseghyan

"Mr. Barseghyan, the Armenian pan-National Movement currently appears
to be the most active party on the political arena, as it never
misses the occasion to announce that it is going to participate in
the presidential elections with a candidate of its own. Do you think
the representatives of the former Government will manage to return to
politics and extract an agreement from Levon Ter-Petrosyan in terms
of proposing his candidacy?"

"If you remember, there were such manifestations before the previous
Presidential elections as well, and society seemed to be waiting day
by day for L. Ter-Petrosyan to make a statement on his returning to
politics. Of course, such conversations were unfounded at the beginning
of 2003, since, by his political posture, the first President made
a more passive response to them. His return was much less probable
then. And the things developed just that way, i.e. he didn’t make a
decision to return.

Currently, such conversations do really have some grounds, becasue we
see that the first President of the Republic has recently been having
quite active communications. In the meantime, such communications take
place not only with his co-thinkers but also with the acting diplomatic
circles (mainly American). But to say that this is a relevant reason
and hence consider the rumors about his return substantiated, will
not be quite proper.

I believe L. Ter-Petrosyan will do a real calculation of the main
risks existing currently. There is a kind of a re-calculation problem
here. He has to find out whether the rumors about public support
correspond to reality, as presented to him by the activists belonging
to and supporting the views of the Armenian pan-National Movement.

I think that by comparing his potentials after the regional visits
he will make a political decision. Frankly speaking, I consider the
probability of his return in the status of a Presidential candidate
very little (in this case, he has a 20 per cent probability).

Of course, considering the peculiarities of these particular
Presidential elections, it is not ruled out that the factions
supporting L.T. P. will, nonetheless, manage to talk him into returning
to politics.

After all, there is the following argument as well. They may tell him
that this is his last chance, and if he doesn’t return to politics,
he will not only give up his political career ultimately, but also
put them – the people who have remained faithful to his principles
for around 10 years on end – at stake.

I think this is a more relevant argument. That is, they may say that
they haven’t ‘advertised’ any activists during the past years and
pinned their hopes in Mr. Ter-Petrosyan only. And they may argue that
by refusing to advance his candidacy now, L.T. P. is actually making
them become faced with a serious situation. This is an argument.

But I think L. Ter-Petrosyan realizes very well that he has very little
chances. Although he stands out from the other, future pro-Opposition
candidates in the positive light, it is not enough for him to stand
in real competition with the main pro-Government candidate."

"Anyway, what kind of shifts and unifications will be possible inside
the pro-Opposition camp, should Mr. Ter-Petrosyan make up his mind
to advance his candidacy?"

"It is clear that Mr, Ter-Petrosyan will not manage to consolidate the
whole pro-Opposition camps and act as a united candidate. As to the
fact that he will be the pivotal or the main candidate representing the
Opposition, there is a greater likelihood in this respect. Because,
I repeat, he differs from the others in the positive light in terms
of his political experience, his real supporters’ activeness and
his means.

However, it should not be ruled out that the team is in control of
certain material and financial resources. And those resources are
currently decisive in the political process.

I think the pro-Opposition camp will consist of three poles. I repeat,
Mr. Ter-Petrosyan will occupy a pivotal position, and the factions,
which are some way or another dissatisfied with the current policy,
will unite around him. And the political factions guided by the
‘at-least-something’ option, will also unite around him.

The second pole is most probably represented by Vazgen Manoukyan.

No matter how much some people are trying to classify him as the
second activist following Mr. Ter-Petrosyan and saying that he will
join the latter under certain circumstances, I don’t think anything
of the kind will happen. Let’s not forget about the events that took
place in 1996, a date that had a crucial role in V. Manoukyan’s career.

And the third pole will most probably be represented by Arthur
Baghdasaryan. I think that a certain number of factions will
unite around A. Baghdasaryan. Simultaneously, there will be some
self-promoting candidates, so to say, and they will join the campaign
by acting as ‘lonely wolves’ (Aram Karapetyan, Tigran Karapetyan
and others).

I think more than 10 candidates (including the ARFD candidate) will be
nominated. And if their number exceeds 10, there will, in my opinion,
be a 50 – 50 likelihood for the pro-Government candidate to be elected
in a single stage.