WHEN WE ARE LUCKY THAT WE STILL EXIST
Hakob Badalyan
Largir, Armenia
Aug 29 2007
Of course, it is too worrisome for Armenia that day by day the
projects, the regional programs of infrastructures are becoming more
and more tangible and definitively enclose our country and make the
isolation of our country irretrievable. It would be ingenuous, even
erroneous to think it is due to the anti-Armenian wish of Turkey and
Azerbaijan. Not only Turkey or Azerbaijan isolate Armenia but also
Russia which is believed to be our strategic partner. For instance,
Russia ignores its partner Armenia and considers Azerbaijan for the
North-South transport axis, connecting with Iran via this country. At
least there is such an intention, and it was considered during the
top-level meeting of Azerbaijan and Iran when on August 21 and 22
the Iranian president visited Azerbaijan. It is also clear that for
Russia Azerbaijan is a more expedient partner. First the Russians
thereby interest this country to face West less and rely on not only
the United States and NATO but also Russia. Moreover, by building
the North-South with its partner’s foe Russia also makes it clear
to Azerbaijan that it can rely on Russia regarding the settlement
of the Karabakh conflict, disregarding that the Kremlin upholds an
absolutely pro-Armenian settlement.
The other circumstance which makes it expedient for Russia to choose
Azerbaijan instead of Armenia for communication is determined by an
objective reality. The problem is the Russian and Georgian relation
which would not improve and seems to be unlikely. Meanwhile, if the
North-South involved Armenia, Georgia would inevitably be involved as
well, which is impossible considering the unstable relation between
Russia and Georgia. Moscow would not agree to involve Georgia unless
Tbilisi pledges loyalty to Moscow but Tbilisi will never pledge
loyalty to Moscow because in that case it would lose its regional
importance for the West. Meanwhile, when you pledge loyalty to Russia
and lose your importance for the West, you become five minutes to
Armenia. Meanwhile, now Georgia is several minutes past Armenia,
although our propaganda would fail to notice it because it is not
politically expedient. Apart from all, the North-South does not have
the importance for Georgia which would make this country revise its
foreign policies.
In the meantime, there is need for revision perhaps only of the
foreign policies of Armenia among the other countries of the region.
And though we state that Armenia is isolated due to the efforts or
policy of one country or another, it is clear that the primary cause
of the isolation of Armenia is the foreign policy of Yerevan. The fact
that no sanctions were applied against our country, that the world
has always recognized the results of our national elections, that we
were not made to return Karabakh and the liberated territories does
not mean that we conduct an effective foreign policy. The increasing
various pan-Armenian gatherings which provide more and more Diasporan
customers for our hotels, restaurants and cafes are not an indication
of an effective policy either. Even the fact that some of our rich
Diasporans agreed to sponsor the remote villages cannot be evidence to
an effective foreign policy. Perhaps there is only one measurement of
an effective foreign policy – the country’s importance and significance
in the region where it is located. It should be noted that Armenia is
gradually losing its importance, even for such a country as Iran which
seemed likely to launch major projects with Armenia. The visit of the
Iranian president to Azerbaijan and the strategic projects discussed
there showed that for Tehran, Baku is important, at least now.
The problem is not that the United States voiced concern regarding
the developing relations of Iran and Armenia. The problem is
that Iran launched a major energy project with Armenia but after
giving the Armenian section of the pipeline to the Russians Iran
realized that it had better discuss those projects with Moscow
rather than Armenia. Other evidence to the diminishing importance
of Armenia is that after statements against the construction of
the Kars-Akhalkalaki railroad bypassing Armenia the United States
and the EU suddenly stated they cannot impede the implementation of
these projects. And the reason is that Armenia failed to act to make
these projects unacceptable in the world through diplomatic methods,
and its efforts were confined to statements about the immorality of
Kars-Akhalkalaki. Generally, the foreign policies of Armenia seem to
be mediated. In other words, to solve our important issues we choose
the third country. For instance, we urge Turkey to recognize the
genocide and open the border with Armenia by asking the third country
to pressure on Turkey, or regarding Kars-Akhalkalaki we expected
Russia or the West to prevent its construction, in our relation with
Georgia we expect Russian coercion at the right moment. We build up
relations with Iran with a headphone connected to the Kremlin on the
other ear. All this produces the impression of a country which is not
capable of independent diplomacy, which is lucky that it still exists.