TURKEY-US RELATIONS LIKELY TO BE TESTED SOON

Today’s Zaman, Turkey
Sept 1 2007

Throughout the last decade foreign policy has always been a key
part of Turkey’s agenda; however only since the ruling Justice and
Development Party (AK Party) first came to power in November 2002
has foreign policy become highly visible in the discussions of the
man on the street.

The European Union membership process and relations with neighboring
Iraq, where the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has found a
safe haven, occupied a great deal of space on this agenda. These two
particular issues have also been the focus of domestic debate between
the ruling and opposition parties.

Ali Babacan, appointed as new foreign minister in Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip Erdoðan’s Cabinet after his predecessor Abdullah Gul became the
new resident of the presidential Cankaya Palace, on Friday took office
at his new post. In a brief speech he delivered as he was welcomed
by Foreign Ministry staff, Babacan highlighted the proactive foreign
policy stance assumed by Ankara, without elaborating on the fact
that this stance has been assumed only in recent years and undertake
Party rule.

On the same day, via a Prime Ministry circular published in the
Official Gazette, it became clear that Babacan will continue wearing
his former hat as Turkey’s chief EU negotiator in addition to his post
as the foreign minister. In the same circular, the Secretariat-General
for EU Affairs (ABGS) which was thus far working as an attachment to
the Prime Ministry was subordinated to the Foreign Ministry.

President Gul’s inaugural speech to Parliament on Tuesday once again
outlined that the EU membership goal has been embraced by Turkey’s
leadership as a core piece of the Turkish Republic’s state policy.

Thus it is obvious that both Gul, who will surely be an active
president in terms of foreign policy, and his successor Babacan will
focus much time on the EU issue.

Nonetheless, Turkey’s foreign policy does not consist solely of the EU
issue. Looking at events of the last few months, it becomes apparent
that Turkey is still losing people in the fight between its security
forces and the PKK. Meanwhile US military officials considering Iraq
strategy options appear to be focusing on reducing the US combat role
in 2008 while increasing training of Iraqi forces.

Despite the fact that the military has not yet developed a plan for
substantial withdrawal of forces next year, officials are laying the
groundwork for possible overtures to Turkey and Jordan to use their
territory for moving some troops and equipment out of Iraq.

Meanwhile, Turkey, which aims at becoming the fourth energy artery
for the EU, seems determined to deepen its bilateral cooperation with
neighboring Iran in the energy field, despite strong objections from
the US.

In Washington, congressional democrats are pushing for two separate
resolutions. One involves urging the administration to recognize
the World War I-era Armenian killings as genocide. Turkey has warned
that passage of the resolutions in the US Congress would seriously
harm relations with Washington and impair cooperation in Iraq and
Afghanistan.

Returning to the Iraq issue, Iraqi Kurds are pushing for a referendum
on the fate of the oil-rich city of Kirkuk before the end of this
year, while Ankara believes that the planned referendum should not
take place without reaching a consensus among the ethnic groups of
Kirkuk — namely Kurds, Arabs and Turkmen.

Given all of these circumstances, retired Ambassador Ozden Sanberk,
a former Foreign Ministry undersecretary, believes that Ankara will
have to focus on "urgent matters," drawing attention to the fact
that not all parameters could be set by Ankara concerning the issue
of the PKK presence in northern Iraq since this situation is one of
the consequences of the ongoing US-led invasion.

"Considering that and keeping in mind that the Kirkuk issue, which
can easily be likened to a ‘time bomb’, as well as the tension
between Turkey’s NATO ally the US and Iran, I believe that the
number one priority for the government will have to be relations
with Washington. Because the US is both a reason for the problems
and a part of the resolution to these problems," Sanberk said in a
telephone interview with Today’s Zaman on Friday.

"For Turkey to be able to concentrate on its EU membership goal,
it first has to minimize threats against its own security. Thus all
foreign policy needs to gravitate around these security concerns.

While outlining its policy accordingly, Ankara will also have to
thoroughly analyze the global and regional trends," the prominent
diplomat added, referring to the rising popularity of the concept of
"nation-state" in a world where international bodies are becoming
less influential.

Agreeing in general with what Sanberk asserts, prominent Milliyet
columnist and foreign policy expert Semih Ýdiz says bilateral relations
between Ankara and Washington are likely to enter a period of tension,
terming future relations between the two capitals "electrified." He
added, "Instead of waiting and seeing what will happen next in Iraq,
Turkey will have to assume a proactive stance by getting directly
involved in easing the political turmoil in Iraq."

Ýdiz concluded: "Having its relations with the US ‘electrified’, Ankara
will be more and more eager to grab hold of the EU anchor. My personal
concern is whether Babacan’s 24 hours will be sufficient for dealing
with all of these issues. The question over whether it is a good idea
to have Babacan wearing two hats is hanging heavily in my thoughts."

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