Zaman
September 5, 2007
YAVUZ BAYDAR
For Turkey, ’embracing’ a small neighbor should not be so difficult
Time is running out for shaping a new strategy in Ankara over what
increasingly more countries now regard and officially recognize as
"the genocide" of Ottoman Armenians during World War I.
The resolution in the US Congress hangs in the balance, backed by a
majority of members. As well, the sharp turn of the Anti-Defamation
League (ADL) is perhaps very timely for many of the genocide
recognition supporters and could be a turning point for the issue.
It should also come as a wake-up call for Turkish diplomacy. It seems
more than obvious that a new approach, new parameters and new strategy
are needed. One might claim that all of this is long overdue. For the
past decade, pressure has slowly been building up over the matter;
however, rather than agreeing with what by any international standards
constitutes the definition of "genocide," one parliament after another
has approved recognizing the fate of the Ottoman Armenians as such.
The flow of events in the direction of Armenian genocide recognition
now appears unstoppable. When, rather than if, the US Congress passes
the resolution, a wall will be torn down, opening the floodgates for
other countries that synchronize their actions with the US to swiftly
join in. A fair prediction is that by the year 2015, the 100th
anniversary of the killings in Asia Minor, a large majority of the
world’s nations will be in line with the recognition. In other words,
the scene will be Turkey versus the rest of the world.
"So what?" is the response by a few in positions of power when
confronted by this potential scenario. This answer is based on the
assumption that Turkey can withstand any criticism from the rest of
the world as long as it maintains a strong economy. However, there is
another crucial consideration missing in that stance — it will be
morally unsustainable. As long as you keep silent on, or even worse,
in total denial of, the tragedy, crucial supporters that are were in
favor of Turkey will continue to turn against it. The more obstinate
Ankara is in being "aggressively in denial" with "Armenians killed
Turks" or "Armenians started it all" type discourse, the more insulted
the world will feel.
What is needed is a new way of thinking. First of all, it is necessary
to be fully aware that the year 2015 (potentially the year Turkey will
be granted EU membership) will be the year of reckoning. From that
point on, the new administration in Ankara, who will certainly be a
fresh combination of a dynamic president and a prime minister with
strong aspirations to "clear the way" for a strong and reliable Turkey
for the West, should provide a detailed road map for dealing with the
issue.
Given that viewpoint, there seems to be only one way forward —
leaving aside all diplomatic hangups, starting a full dialogue with
Yerevan and opening the borders.
Will that be easy? Of course not. But keep in mind that President
Abdullah Gül was trying all possible ways to avoid the issue and
exercised great care in dealing with Yerevan directly. Although he has
met fierce resistance from some senior Foreign Ministry bureaucrats
and the National Security Council, both he and Erdoðan know that the
only way out is to begin talks with their eastern neighbor. When this
is done, most of the pressure from abroad will dissipate.
Yerevan is also in great need of opening the channels of communication
with Ankara; it is squeezed between Russia and Iran and with both a
strained balancing act is apparent. It certainly understands the
rationale behind having normalized relations with Turkey. For Ankara,
the dialogue also will serve as an efficient means to normalize its
strained relations with the US.
Both Gül and Vartan Oskanyan as foreign ministers tried hard to find
ways to open the border. There was a draft plan which provided several
options including: opening the border post only for limited hours,
opening it only to non-Turks and non-Armenians, opening only for the
transit of goods, etc. The interests of both sides have now been well
defined and should be brought to the table when talks begin.
It is a crucial moment for Turkey, and for Gül and Erdoðan it requires
facing the issue head on. Luckily, for them, the main opposition in
Turkey, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), could be a positive
force in helping to develop a feasible solution.
Let each side keep in mind that not reaching a climax of "genocide
recognition" by 2015 in refusing to normalize relations with each
other will be harmful to both countries. Winners or losers — the
decision is in their hands.
05.09.2007
Columnists
Source: berno=121217