THE PARTICIPANTS OF THE POLITICAL BARGAINING
Armen Tsatouryan

Hayots Ashkharh Daily
Sept 5 2007
Armenia

Although many people in our reality are convinced that the Opposition
will fail in its attempts to run for the 2008 presidential elections
with a united candidate, they didn’t expect scenes of an extremely
speedy and stormy divorce.

But what really happened? Yesterday, the leader of "New Times" party
announced without hesitation that "I am not going to join anyone. I
will run for election on my own." It is quite easy to understand this
kind of sincerity expressed by Aram Karapetyan, since he is strongly
against the option of appointing a united candidate in an artificial
manner, and pins hopes on "natural elections", i.e. the probability
of a one of the pro-Opposition leaders participating in the second
stage of the elections.

A. Karapetyan’s statement is the first stone thrown into the political
pool which faces the danger of stagnation, and it promises to bring
about new fluctuations.

It is clear from now on that Tigran Karapetyan, leader of the
People’s Party is will propose his candidacy by all means, without
joining anyone.

It is also obvious that ARFD will also run for Presidency with
a candidate of its own. And for this purpose, the nearest Supreme
Assembly is an opportunity of determining the personality of a specific
candidate, rather than reviewing their principle.

Such divisions observed inside the Governmental camp will, in their
turn, play the role of a catalyzing machine for those pro-Opposition
leaders who, deep in their heart, wish the Opposition to run for
elections in separate teams; however, they do not yet dare to declare
of such intention. Vazgen Manoukyan has a specific role among them,
his chances for becoming the Opposition’s united candidate lessening.

Let’s try to find what chances the four leaders of the present-day
Parliamentary majority (Stepan Demirtchyan, Artashes Geghamyan,
Arthur Baghdasaryan and Raffi Hovhannisyan) have in terms of joining
one another or running for election separately. The latter among
them becomes faced with serious obstacles in case of advancing his
candidacy; therefore the chances of uniting around him are purely
theoretical in character. As to the other three, deep in their hearts
they certainly cherish desires of becoming the Opposition’s united
candidate, however, the "big game" that the Armenian pan-National
Movement has started around L. Ter-Petrosyan, has moved them at least
to the bench of "substitutes".

The following question comes up: First: whether these two leaders
will join Levon Ter-Petrosyan, should he, nonetheless, advance his
candidacy?

Second: whether a special ‘trilateral agreement’ among Stepan
Demirtchyan, Artashes Geghamyan and Arthur Baghdasaryan will be
possible without L. Ter-Petrosyan’s participation.

We believe, the current negotiations with the above-mentioned three
candidates for joining Mr. Ter-Petrosyan are bilateral tactical
games. In this way, the Armenian pan-National Movement and its leaders
demonstrate their "broad opportunities", whereas each of the remaining
three candidates nourishes disguised hopes that Ter-Petrosyan will quit
the arena at the last moment, and he will come in possession of the
vacant "seat". It is not accidental that neither Arthur Baghdasaryan
nor his party members are trying to conceal the fact that they have
joined the game on one condition only: the whole camp supporting the
Armenian pan-National Movement will unite around Arthur Baghdasayan,
in case Mr. Ter-Petrosyan refuses to run for Presidency.

As to S. Demirtchyan and A. Geghamyan, their goals are a little bit
different. Faced by the fact of being banished from the Parliament,
these people acutely perceive the danger of falling into total
oblivion. However, the prospect of uniting around Levon Ter-Petrosyan
is not a guarantee for any of them to overcome the existing threat. In
that case, they simply have certain chances of "offering a high price"
for their personality, if, of course, there are relevant "buyers"
in the other political camps.

In case of any solution to the "great fraud" resulting from the issue
of L. Ter-Petrosyan’s nomination, each of these three leaders will
also think only about his future. And in that respect, proposing
one’s own candidacy will be the best way out, as it may provide
the only opportunity of participating in the "political bargaining"
expected during the coming months.

Thus, the inevitable process of self-nominations will result in
such serious divisions on the political arena that the pretenders to
presidency will grow exponentially, exceeding the borderline of 10
candidates by all means.