THE ENERGY MATRIX
By Tulin Daloglu, a freelance writer.

Washington Times, DC
September 18, 2007

In the eyes of President Bush, for he believes he has made the right
decision to invade Iraq, his speech on Thursday did not acknowledge
any change in strategy.

"The success of a free Iraq is critical to the security of the United
States," he said. "A free Iraq will counter the destructive ambitions
of Iran." But Mr. Bush’s ongoing belief in the mission stands at odds
with the perception of reality in Iraq on both sides of the Atlantic.

So it was interesting to hear Nicholas Burns, undersecretary of
state for political affairs, discuss the importance of Turkey to
America’s future in the Middle East in a speech at the Atlantic
Council just hours before president’s speech. "There is really
nothing more important at this point in time… as we Americans,
in our government, look out at the world and see Turkey is this
critically important country to our interests in the greater Middle
East region," Mr. Burns said.

"One glance at the map demonstrates why it is so important
to strengthen the ties between our two countries," Mr. Burns
continued. "Turkey is influential in the Balkans, in the Black Sea, the
Caucasus, and in the greater Middle East. In this vitally important arc
of countries where so much of our foreign policy attention now lies,
Turkey is the vital link." At the event, former U.S. ambassadors to
Turkey asked questions that were more telling than Mr. Burns’ official
message – proof that the relationship between the two countries has
literally reached "a critical juncture," as Mr. Burns said, and that
the former ambassadors are concerned that Turkey may continue to drift
away from the U.S. "Why now?" asked Mark Parris, former ambassador to
Ankara. "Because so many of the American interests you have described
are by no means new."

Mr. Parris reminded the room about the statement of strategic vision
that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and then-Foreign Minister
Abdullah Gul adopted in July 2006. "We – practitioners – know that
words ultimately don’t cut it," Mr. Parris said. "The vision statement
of two years ago covered all the same ground. It has largely remained
words… If I were a Turkish politician with the U.S. approval ratings
at 9 percent or so, I would be looking for good arguments as to why at
this point in the relationship Turkey has an interest in re-engaging
with an administration which has 16 months in office."

Because, Mr. Burns replied, the U.S. government is standing up to
say Turkey is "our indispensable ally in the Middle East." Mr. Burns
talked about the U.S. support to build the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan oil
pipeline and the South Caucasus gas pipeline, which makes Turkey an
energy corridor. "Turkey is a key connector in the energy question –
oil and gas from Caucasus and Central Asia to the West," he said. "We
share a common interest in preventing the domination by one country of
the oil and gas sources and pipelines for western Europe and for all
of our allies who live in that region." Evidently, he was positioning
against Turkey’s emerging alternatives with Russia.

Mr. Burns stressed the need for cooperation on Iraq and Iran. "The
U.S. has the most powerful presence in Iraq and we’re the most powerful
country focused on Iran today," he said. "The future of peace and
security in the Middle East depends on the right decisions by Turkey,
the U.S. and other countries concerning both." Mr. Burns also noted
that the United States is troubled that Turkey recently committed to
a memorandum on energy cooperation with Iran. "Now is not the time
for business as usual with Iran," he said. Former Ambassador Marc
Grossman responded: "But Turks were waving their hands and asking:
Is there anyone who cares about this energy corridor in the U.S.?"

The U.S.-Turkey relationship will not improve until the U.S. takes
bold, visible action against the Northern Iraq strongholds of Kurdish
separatist terrorists, the PKK. While the U.S. takes immense care
not to offend the Iraqi Kurdish leadership, Turks are dying. Turkey
has lost more people than any coalition partner in Iraq – on its own
land – as a result of the cross-border PKK terrorist attacks. The
Pentagon has admitted that the PKK uses American weapons originally
given to Iraqi security forces.

The U.S. House is on the path toward passing a resolution declaring
the Armenian tragedy at the end of World War I a "genocide." Turks see
the U.S. inaction against PKK terrorism and support for a "genocide"
resolution as an affront to their alliance that threatens Turkey’s
national security interests.

In addition, few Turks believe their country will ever be accepted
as a full member of the European Union.

Given the challenging realities in Iraq and in the region, Turks
are signaling for the first time that although they have not
moved away from a Euro-Atlantic alliance, they are searching for
an alternative. Mr. Burns will be visiting Turkey this week. Yet,
time will show whether what Mr. Burns promised – that "[w]e must take
bold steps to restore the primacy of Turkey as a strategic partner"
– will make a difference.