"LOVE TRIANGLE": KOCHARYAN-DASHNAKTSUTYUN-SARGSYAN
James Hakobyan

Lragir.am
20-09-2007 12:08:28

The rise of the retirement benefits from January 1, 2008 that
the government affirmed a few weeks ago was certainly an election
pledge on behalf of Serge Sargsyan. Perhaps, however, it is wrong to
discern only PR in this move. The rise of the retirement benefit has
a clear-cut tactical target. Serge Sargsyan realized a long time ago
that the only obstacle on his way to full power is Robert Kocharyan.

Kocharyan is his only opponent. Although the president has endorsed
Serge Sargsyan and said to see him as the next president, he had
also stated unambiguously that he does not want to be the youngest
pensioner of the country. And the rise in pensions is aimed to make
Robert Kocharyan change his mind, tempt him that retiring is not a bad
idea at all. After all, the desire not to retire might not be caused
by the craving for power but the worry that the retirement benefit
in Armenia is too small to live on. Perhaps Serge Sargsyan thought
if they raise the retirement benefit up the lower limit of poverty,
the leaving president may change his decision and retire instead of
fighting for government.

Apparently, however, Robert Kocharyan who is not a believer
nevertheless follows the commandment and is not tempted. And
evidence to it is the General Meeting of the ARF Dashnaktsutyun which
eventually decided to name president. And though many believe that
Dashnaktsutyun is merely selling itself, we should, nevertheless,
keep in mind that Dashnaktsutyun say to be alternative to both the
government and the opposition, meanwhile they still support Robert
Kocharyan. Without Robert Kocharyan Dashnaktsutyun would not even try
to sell itself because for the time being this party is evaluated by
Robert Kocharyan’s factor, and without the factor of the president, in
other words, if he did not view Dashnaktsutyun as a means of solving
the problem of his future in politics, the ARF Dashnaktsutyun would
completely lose its value, and would not sell for even a song, even
the Republicans would not buy it. Therefore, some Republican activists
encouraged by Robert Kocharyan’s speaker’s statement to support Serge
Sargsyan sent threats in the direction of Dashnaktsutyun that if they
act "independently" in the presidential election as they state now,
they will have to pack their governmental things and move to the
other platform.

On the other hand, however, an interesting situation has occurred in
which the lack of a political party may be crucial. The point is that
the more importance Robert Kocharyan imparts Dashnaktsutyun with,
the more importance he gets from Dashnaktsutyun. Perhaps the ARF
Dashnaktsutyun felt the dependence of the president on it when the
Republican swallowed the Bargavach Hayastan project without chewing and
had no problems with digestion. In other words, the ARF Dashnaktsutyun
has realizes that it remains the last or the last but one hope of
the president. The nomination of two candidates is evidence that
they have realized. It may mean that Dashnaktsutyun merely offers
two proposals to the wings of government – to Robert Kocharyan and
to Serge Sargsyan. Consequently, the ARF Dashnaktsutyun may make
a lucrative deal with the Republican Party. It is possible that the
threats that come from the Republican camp in Dashnaktsutyun’s address
are meant to cut it from Robert Kocharyan and push him toward separate
negotiations with the Republican Party. In more intelligible terms
for the modern political thought, the Republican Party offers the ARF
Dashnaktsutyun to "let down" Kocharyan and the ARF Dashnaktsutyun in
fact displays such likelihood. It may mean that the arrangement between
the president and the Republican Party or Serge Sargsyan rather fails,
and a deal with the ARF Dashnaktsutyun is thought easier. After all,
Dashnaktsutyun are ascetic. Besides, a window of the government is
always better than several windows of the jail. In other words, the
president and the prime minister have reached no agreement on the
basic issues regarding the settlement of the problem of transfer of
power, and the issue of status remains up in the air, not Karabakh’s
but Robert Kocharyan’s.