KARABAKH MAY BE PERMITTED PARTICIPATION IN NEGOTIATIONS: HYPOTHETICAL MEETING BETWEEN AZERBAIJANI AND ARMENIAN PRESIDENTS DISCUSSED IN BAKU
by Yuri Roks

Agency WPS
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
September 21, 2007 Friday
Russia

DEFENSE and SECURITY

Configuration of the Azerbaijani-Armenian talks over Karabakh may be
changed; self-proclaimed Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh may become a
full-fledged participant of the negotiations again.

Chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group for Karabakh crisis resolution
visited Stepanakert, the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh. When their
meeting with newly elected President Bako Saakjan was over, foreign
diplomats announced that configuration of the Azerbaijani-Armenian
talks over Karabakh might undergo certain changes.

"We must see representatives of Karabakh at the table here. The
sooner we do, the better," OSCE Minsk Group French Chairman Bernard
Fassier said. Fassier reminded journalists that this configuration
had been used until the middle of the 1990s. Russian Chairman Yuri
Merzlyakov tended to second this position rather than that of his
American counterpart. This latter, Matthew Bryza, suggested caution
and referred to the beginning of "new political seasons in Armenia
and Azerbaijan alike." The US diplomat was speaking of presidential
elections in both countries scheduled for 2008.

Zardusht Ali-Zade, Azerbaijani political scientist and political
scientist, told this newspaper in no uncertain terms that no
configuration of the talks would or actually could be effective. "The
arrangement of forces at this point is such that it suits all involved
parties," Ali-Zade pointed out. "Yerevan feels confident because
the Minsk Group comprises Armenia’s promoters and benefactors. The
Azerbaijani elite in its turn landed some lucrative energy projects
using the war at first and the territorial problem afterwards as
an excuse. As for the West, it turns a blind eye to the state of
affairs with democracy and freedoms. Changing anything is not in the
interests of the authorities. War speculations (unless the conflict
is settled by peaceful means, that is) enable the authorities to
emulate their alleged worry over Karabakh and to mislead Azerbaijani
society." Neither did Ali-Zade consider Yerevan to be sincere in its
demands to have Karabakh representatives at the talks too because
Karabakh was already involved in the negotiations.

"President of Armenia, Robert Kocharjan, and Sarkisjan as his likeliest
successor are leaders of the Karabakh movement," the political
scientist said. "Thinking that Karabakh representatives will do
anything on their own, without consulting Kocharjan and Sarkisjan, is
the height of naivete. On the other hand, the acceptance of Karabakh
at the talks as the Armenians insist on will be a step closer to
definition of its status."

Armenian political scientist Boris Navasardjan is convinced that when
they suggest a new configuration of the talks, foreign intermediaries
are actually trying to make the negotiating parties more malleable
(particularly Armenia). "It is Yerevan that has been clamoring all
these years for Stepanakert’s return to the negotiations. It will
have to prove now that it wanted to make the talks more productive
and not just lead them into a cul-de-sac," Navasardjan said.

On the other hand, this turn of events will make Yerevan’s explanations
of what is making the process of talks stagnate obsolete. Armenia
stated more than once already that it alone was demanded to make
concessions and meet Baku halfway. Once Stepanakert is accepted at
the talks again, however, Baku and international intermediaries
will be quite legitimately expecting some similar gesture from
Yerevan. Navasardjan suspects that the Armenians will be asked (again)
to liberate at least some of the occupied Azerbaijani territories near
Nagorno-Karabakh and stop demanding clarification of the future status
of Karabakh. "I don’t expect Yerevan to go for it and barter something
truly important (territories) for something ethereal like a tactical
advantage at the talks," the political scientist said. If Azerbaijan
really wants some compromise that will give it back the occupied
districts the Armenians regard as a ‘safety belt" around Karabakh,
it will have to offer its opponents something substantial indeed,
something like firm guarantees of non-renewal of the hostilities. Or
the configuration change deal will either be cancelled altogether, or
not change at all in the content of the talks and will remain another
device enabling the parties to stall for time. On the other hand, even
that will be a result – given the current situation with the talks."

The OSCE Minsk Group returned from Stepanakert to Yerevan. It
is expected in Baku later today. Azerbaijani Foreign Minister
Elmar Mamedjarov told journalists that some ideas suggested by the
intermediaries were looked promising and that they were pondered in
Azerbaijan. "We will discuss these ideas when the OSCE Minsk Group
chairmen are here," Mamedjarov said. "If the decision is made that
something deserves the attention of the presidents, their meeting
may be arranged."