A WAR OF DECLARATIONS AND THREATS: NAGORNO-KARABAKH: PASSIONS ARE ESCALATING AGAIN
Andrei Korbut
Translated by Elena Leonova
Agency WPS
Source: Voenno-Promyshlennyi Kurier, No. 37, September 26, 2007, p. 3
What the Papers Say Part A (Russia)
September 27, 2007 Thursday
An update on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and
Azerbaijan; The Nagorno-Karabakh peace talks appear to be frozen
indefinitely. Meanwhile, gunfire is being heard more and more
frequently in the conflict zone; and some politicians, especially in
Azerbaijan, are saying that the Nagorno-Karabakh problem should be
solved by force.
The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, dealing with Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict regulation, visited Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia, and Azerbaijan
on September 16-18. Their meetings with the leaders of these countries
were apparently aimed at furthering the negotiation process. But
when they visited Yerevan, Baku, and Stepanakert, all they heard
were words about being prepared to support the efforts of conflict
regulation mediators. In other words, these meetings failed to produce
any sensational news. The Minsk Group co-chairs – Yuri Merzlyakov
(Russia), Matthew Bryza (USA), and Bernard Fassiet (France) – failed
to reach agreement on a new round of negotiations at any level. Both
Baku and Yerevan maintain that now is not the appropriate time to
talk of a meeting between the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia.
In short, the peace talks appear to be frozen indefinitely.
Meanwhile, gunfire is being heard more and more frequently in the
conflict zone; and some politicians, especially in Azerbaijan, are
saying that the Nagorno-Karabakh problem should be solved by force.
In fact, the spirit of armed force is already perceptible in this
process. According to the Azeri Defense Ministry, the ceasefire in
the conflict zone was broken 256 times between January and August of
2007. In other words, gunfire is recorded at least once a day along
the dividing line between Armenian and Azeri troops.
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict began in 1988, when the mostly
Armenian-populated Nagorno-Karabakh announced its secession from
Azerbaijan. On December 10, 1991 – only a few days before the Soviet
Union’s official break-up – Nagorno-Karabakh held a referendum in
which 99.89% of its residents voted for complete independence from
Azerbaijan. This was followed by widespread armed conflict, as a
result of which Azerbaijan lost control of Nagorno-Karabakh and some
adjacent regions. After a ceasefire came into effect on May 12, 1994,
miltary action in the conflict zone was halted. By then, 25-30,000
people had been killed and around a million people had been forced
to leave their homes.
The ceasefire is supposed to be still in effect – but the speeches of
politicians are taking an increasingly militant turn. For example,
Azeri politician Vafa Guluzade suddenly proposed that Turkey should
send "a couple of divisions" to Nakhichevan and aim them at Yerevan;
he alleged that Russia has troops in Armenia – so why shouldn’t Turkey
have troops in Azerbaijan?
Such statements may seem extremist, but observers are getting the
impression that the official leadership of Azerbaijan – President
Ilham Aliyev – is also inclined to pursue a military solution to
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. In a recent interview with Verslo
Zinios/Business News and Verslo klase/Business Class (Lithuania),
Aliyev said: "If we are 100% certain that negotiations will lead to
nothing, we have every right under international law to re-establish
our territorial integrity by any means we choose, up to and including
military force – and we make no secret of that. We should be prepared
for that, and we are preparing for that." Aliyev said that Azerbaijan
will increase its military spending in 2008, from the present level of
around $1 billion a year. "That’s a lot of money. But we are living
in a state of war – our lands have been occupied – so we must spend
however much is necessary on this area," said Aliyev.